AFL Rankings: Finals 2022

A perennial finalist finds room to improve

After nine unsuccessful finals series in ten years, Geelong are finally premiers again, easily beating the Sydney Swans in the Grand Final by 81 points. Every year seemed to be the Cats’ last go at it, and every year they seemed to load up with established players and go again, only to fall short in the final stages to a younger, faster, higher pressure side. This year though, with the oldest AFL team ever assembled, the Cats looked a step above everyone else, harking back to the great Geelong sides of 2007 to 2011.

Amazingly for a team that has been a perennial top four side for the past decade, and which had almost half their premiership side aged over 30, the Cats were possibly the biggest improver in 2022. Their points differential per game improved from a respectable 12 points in 2021 to a dominant 33 points in 2022 (see table below), putting them among the best teams of the AFL era. Their inside 50 differential jumped from six to 13 per game. The Cats moved away from their ‘chip-mark’ style of 2021 and went for a more direct route when they had the ball with their uncontested possessions differential falling by over 30 possessions per game. They were more damaging both in defence and attack, easily leading the league for differentials in intercepts and marks inside 50.

A relatively old side can be an indication that your team is also relatively deep. Based on the AFL Player Ratings, nearly every finalist had a player with a higher average rating this year than the Cats’ top player Tom Stewart (see table below). The Cats however had a strong ‘top 10’ – Stewart, fellow All-Australians Mark Blicavs, Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins and Tyson Stengle, former All-Australians Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, and Cameron Guthrie, along with big improver Tom Atkins and experienced ruck Rhys Stanley. Their ‘next 10’, which included Norm Smith Medal winner Isaac Smith, Mitch Duncan, and Rising Star contender Sam De Koning, were also on the whole highly reliable. Their solid list build of recent years finally won out.

Geelong this season was about as dominant, possibly more so, than Melbourne last season. As the Demons showed this year, things can change quickly, even for teams that mostly seem to be in the ‘prime’ of their careers. The Cats’ ability to keep finding strong performers is going to come under greater strain as many of their current stars retire over the next few years. But that seemed to be the story back in 2011, and they found a way to stay competitive, so who would bet against them?

AFL WOMEN'S Rankings: Round 5 SEASON 7

Richmond takes a step towards the big time

Since their entry into the AFLW competition Richmond has struggled to win matches, and rarely looked like troubling the top teams. The Tigers did not win a match in their first season, and won only three matches in each of their second and third seasons, for a total of six wins from 25 games.

This season the Tigers appear to have taken a step forward, although it has taken a few weeks to realise just how significant that step forward may be. They lost a close match first up against Geelong, scoring only one goal, but that now does not look too bad given how stingy the Cats’ defence has subsequently been. They then fell behind in the final quarter against Adelaide, however given the Crows’ recent form that result is now looking better as well, and they dominated territory in that match with 38 to 20 inside 50s. Richmond then played two expansion sides and did about as well as expected, easily beating Hawthorn and having a close win against the stronger expansion team Essendon.

Against a Brisbane Lions side that had thrashed its first three opponents, and comfortably accounted for seemingly its biggest challenger Melbourne last weekend, the Tigers were given little chance of recording a third straight win. In a low scoring match however Richmond prevailed by four points to record easily their best-ever win in the AFLW competition. It is arguable if they were actually the better side – with Brisbane’s Dakota Davidson missing an easy chance from the goal square late in the match – but they were strong enough against the Lions that the game was theirs for the taking, with eight more possessions and only six less inside 50s.

Richmond has improved in several main areas this season. Their scoring is slightly down, but their points conceded is on average half of what it was last season (20 points per game to 42). Also last season they trailed their opponents significantly in terms of inside 50s and possessions, but this season to date they have positive differentials (see table below). Their improvement in these areas is even more impressive when one considers their fixture has so far has been tougher than last season’s, when they still had a fixture commensurate with being one of the newest expansion sides.

Finally, another factor that made the win against the Lions more impressive was that it came without captain Katie Brennan or vice-captain Sarah Hosking. Maddie Shevlin had probably her best-ever game for the Tigers, while recruit Eilish Sheerin continued to rack up the metres gained for which she currently ranks second in the competition (despite not being among the leaders in kicks), and intercepts for which she is easily first. The addition of Grace Egan and full return of former number one draft pick Ellie McKenzie has also given Monique Conti some much-needed support in the midfield.

Can the Tigers make their first ever finals series? It still may be a close thing, but on current form whichever way it goes they have nevertheless taken some significant steps forward this season.

AFL WOMEN'S Rankings: Round 4 SEASON 7

The Lions rule

In the battle of (arguably) the two strongest teams in the AFL Women’s competition, the Brisbane Lions triumphed over Melbourne/ Naarm by 15 points, coming back from a three-goal deficit in the first quarter. As expected, Brisbane did not dominate the scoreboard or the main statistics to the extent they have in their first three matches of this season. After the first ten minutes though they were able to effectively ‘put the clamps’ on the Demons, recording six more inside 50s, 11 more contested possessions, and perhaps crucially 18 to six tackles inside their 50 metre arc.

The Demons are a fairly deep team, but the Lions may be even deeper. For all of their experience, Melbourne still have some relative ‘newbies’ filling out their team (i.e. started in the past two years) including West, Mackin, Chaplin, Gillard, Fitzsimon, and debutant Campbell. Aside from the precociously talented Farquharson and Pullar, Brisbane didn’t have anyone that was not at least in their fourth season. They may not have much in terms of ‘superstars’ outside of reigning AFLW best and fairest Emily Bates, but their level of depth (Anderson, O’Dwyer, Davidson, Svarc, Conway, Dawes, Wardlaw, Hodder, etc.) is going to be hard to stop.

The Crows show they are still a force

Last week’s post focused on how this season’s Adelaide Crows were a step below their premiership-winning teams of the past several years, but the Crows were quite impressive – though inaccurate – in their win against a solid Collingwood side on the weekend. Adelaide dominated territory, with 36 to 15 inside 50s, but also got their ‘outside’ game going with 23 more uncontested possessions than the Pies.

The Magpies have been impressive this season, however the absence of Brianna Davey and Brittany Bonnici was probably more evident against a midfield that boasts Ebony Marinoff and Anne Hatchard. Marinoff and Hatchard are not just impressive ‘in the coalface’; they can get the ball around the ground too, with Hatchard ranking second in the league for disposals this season despite not always starting in the centre

The Crows’ experience profile is more like the Demons than the Lions, and their match against the Magpies seems like it was more ‘the bronze medal match-up’ compared with the ‘championship bout’ between Brisbane and Melbourne / Naarm. Still the Crows look to have stamped themselves as at least the third best team, or at least one of the top five teams alongside the Lions, Demons, Magpies, and the Western Bulldogs, this season.

AFL WOMEN'S Rankings: Round 3 SEASON 7

Three-time AFL Women’s premiers the Adelaide Crows were expected to have some difficulty sustaining their success once the other AFL team from South Australia – Port Adelaide – entered the women’s league. This was mainly due to losing two-time league best and fairest Erin Phillips to be the Power’s inaugural captain, although they otherwise did reasonably well in holding on to their premiership players.

The Crows’ start to the season though has been somewhat below what might have been expected. They have so far lost to last season’s runners-up Melbourne at home by three goals, beat Richmond – but only by nine points, and beat North Melbourne at home by 14 points. This sees them sit just inside the top eight at this point.

They were also well beaten by the Demons and Tigers in particular areas (see table above). Melbourne amassed an astonishing 73 more uncontested possessions than Adelaide in their match, which is an area (one of the many) that the Crows have dominated in the past. Then Adelaide were well beaten in the territory battle by Richmond, having 18 less inside 50s, but managed to get over the line through some late goals. They were a bit more convincing against North Melbourne – although the score was close until the fourth quarter, the final score was probably a fair reflection of the difference between the two sides.

The Crows are still one of the better teams though. They have another tough match this week against Collingwood, but it may be when their fixture becomes easier they can deal out some convincing wins again. For now Brisbane looks to be the new power side, but there would still be some uneasiness for any team that has to face the Crows this season.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 2 SEASON 7

The Dockers plummet

Last season Fremantle made the AFL Women’s preliminary finals. This weekend they scored a solitary point at home against Geelong. That followed a 49-point loss to Brisbane in their first match of the season.

The Dockers have been inside 50 only 37 times in their two matches, which is less than half the number of their two opponents. They’ve had 53 less contested possessions, and 86 less uncontested possessions, putting them at or near the bottom of the league for differentials for both measures. Their tackles have dropped by three per game, while the league average has increased by six per game. It has been a dramatic fall so far.

In the previous season Fremantle had one of the best midfields going around, and a formidable forward line. Kiara Bowers, Hayley Miller, and Gabby O’Sullivan were all in the top 25 for average contested possessions per game. Ebony Antonio and Gemma Houghton were in the top 20 for average goals per game, and Kara Antonio and Miller were in the top 10 for average score involvements.

This season the Antonios have been lost to injury, Houghton lost to expansion team Port Adelaide, and O’Sullivan has been shifted back into the forward line. O’Sullivan’s possessions have gone down significantly, but Freo’s other mids Dana East and Aine Tighe haven’t stepped up their ball-winning to compensate. Even Bowers and Miller have been somewhat down on last season’s form.

Replicating last season’s preliminary final berth looks out of reach now, but there should still be enough talent at the Dockers to fare better this season than they have so far. This week’s match against the Bulldogs should give us more of an indication whether this is just a temporary dip in form, or a sign of something more permanent.

Geelong on top, but Brisbane are probably the best

Through holding the Dockers to one point, Geelong is actually on top of the AFLW ladder after Round 2, having allowed only twelve points in their two games so far. However they haven’t been as dominant in general play, having scored only 42 points themselves, and actually turning the ball over more than their opponents.

Instead the dominant team at the moment is probably Brisbane. The Lions have scored almost 100 more points than their opponents across their two matches, and they’ve had over double the number of inside 50s, and over 40 more contested possessions and uncontested possessions.

The Lions’ main challengers appear to be Melbourne, who would be currently ranked more similarly to Brisbane if they had been more accurate in front of goal against North Melbourne on the weekend. Melbourne has kept possession of the ball better than anyone, averaging 60 more uncontested possessions than their opponents. Their fixture has been tougher than Brisbane’s so far – having played North and last year’s premiers Adelaide – so we should get a better idea of how dominant they are playing against (an admittedly improved) St. Kilda this weekend.