Uneven fixtures and short
season aside, few would argue against the eight best teams having made the AFLW
Finals this season, with the eighth-placed team being one and a half wins and a
sizable amount of percentage ahead of ninth. More arguable is whether that
uneven fixture has meant they have finished in the ‘right’ order’.
Specifically, North Melbourne in eighth spot is probably the fourth best team,
but finished lower down through a combination of some inaccurate kicking in
front of goal and a tougher
fixture than the four teams that finished directly above them. (Personally,
as a Tigers’ supporter in a season where Richmond has ‘snuck’ into fourth, I’m
quite happy with this turn of events.)
As a result, my main
prediction for the finals is that North Melbourne will beat both Geelong this
week and Richmond in the semi-finals to make it to the preliminary final stage.
Aside from that I am picking the higher-placed home sides. I have Brisbane,
Melbourne, and Collingwood winning this week, and then Brisbane and Melbourne
winning through to the Grand Final. With the Lions’ home ground advantage if
they can win through to the last match I am picking them to narrowly win their
second premiership.
The Lions and Demons are almost inseparable though, as evident in Brisbane finishing just 0.3 percentage points ahead of Melbourne to claim top spot on the ladder. Adelaide looks a step below those two teams, but they of course have the track record of three premierships in six years. As said above North Melbourne also looks strong, but winning four straight matches to win the flag will be a tough ask.
Still it will be an exciting time for the other teams, particularly big improvers Richmond and Geelong who have had no or little finals experience to date. They have surprised so far this season, so who is to say they could not surprise for another week or two?
