AFL Rankings: Round 2 2023

In winning only two games last year North Melbourne were significantly behind their opponents in a lot of areas, but one of them was their ability to win the contested ball. The Kangaroos averaged nine contested possessions less per game than their opposition last year, ranking them equal third-last in the AFL (see table below).

After two rounds this year under new coach Alastair Clarkson the Roos have won two games already, albeit narrowly. So far their average contested possession differential has hugely improved, shooting up to almost 20 per game, ranking them second (see table below). This has to a large degree been driven by an improvement in winning clearances, with an average differential so far of 15 per game, easily first in the league. The monster in the middle for North has been Luke Davies-Uniacke who is averaging over 10 clearances per game, about double what he averaged last season.

Winning the contested ball can not only turn you from a relatively poor team to a good team, but also from a good team to a great team. Collingwood had a similar contested possession differential to North Melbourne last year, and a worse clearance differential, ranking near the bottom of the league for both (see table above). Despite this they came within a couple of points of making the Grand Final.

Over the first two weeks this year however they have killed it in these categories, averaging a whopping 31 more contested possessions than their opponents and almost ten more clearances. Former Brownlow Medal winner Tom Mitchell has helped the Magpies’ clearance work with his arrival, averaging nine clearances per game. Many of the main Pies have increased their contested possessions per game so far this season, most notably Darcy Cameron, who has gone from eight to 12 contested possessions per game.

At the other end, probably part of why reigning premiers Geelong are winless so far this season is their losing the contested possession battle, with a deficit of over ten per game compared with a surplus of seven per game in 2022. Fellow winless finalists the Bulldogs have also seen a large drop in their contested possession differential, mainly from not yet holding up their amazing clearance differential from last season. More specifically Jack Macrae has spent less time in the middle, and has dropped from six to three clearances per game, with his replacements not winning the stoppages with the same success.

Winning contested possessions is of course not everything, but it does go a fair way to helping get the win. If the Kangaroos and Magpies continue to rank near the top of the league throughout the season in this category rather than the bottom, they can reasonably expect their overall performances to markedly improve compared with last season.

AFL Rankings: Round 1 2023

Did Collingwood just prove the analysts wrong?

One of the main stories of the 2022 season was Collingwood’s extraordinarily successful record in close games. They won eleven matches by less than 12 points, and only lost three by that margin – and all of those were against the other three preliminary finalists.

Many football fans and commentators praised Collingwood’s ability to keep winning close games. Many analysts did not deny it was a great effort, but argued that it probably had more to do with a stretch of good luck than ability, as teams are not generally able to do better than win 50 per cent of close games over the long haul. The Magpies were therefore tipped by some of the more analytical pundits to likely drop in 2023 – assuming they generally played to a similar level than 2022 – because it is unlikely their fantastic record in close games could be replicated.

And then Collingwood has come out in the first round and beaten the reigning premiers Geelong by 22 points, with seven more scoring shots and 16 more inside 50s. Did the analysts underrate Collingwood? Possibly, but that doesn’t necessarily prove Collingwood weren’t unusually ‘lucky’ last year. Maybe the Magpies are better this year? Maybe the Cats are worse? Maybe Collingwood just had a better than usual night? We probably won’t have a clearer picture until a few weeks into the new season.

One pleasing aspect for Collingwood though is that they actually got more of the ball on the weekend than their opponents, both for contested possessions (+5) and by a considerable margin uncontested possessions (+63). They trailed their opponents on average in these areas last year, and were well beaten against Geelong on contested possessions (-21) in their final last year. Again it is too soon into the new season to tell whether the Magpies will sustain that, but it is a possible early indicator that they may be a little better this year.

Did Port Adelaide just prove the analysts right?

At the other end of the ‘luck’ spectrum for analysts in 2022 was Port Adelaide, who won only two out of nine games decided by less than 12 points, and missed the finals. They are therefore a common tip among the statistically-minded to improve in 2023.

Those who liked Port’s prospects to improve their win tally in 2023 could hardly have felt more validated – as much as it is possible to be validated by one result – when the Power smashed through preliminary finalists the Brisbane Lions on the weekend. Port were rampant in the second half of that match, and finished with the highest differentials in scoring shots (+19), inside 50s (+25), and uncontested possessions (+127) for the round – along with the second highest contested possession differential (+34). It was a dominant performance.

Again, we want to pump the brakes a little on drawing too much from one game, but this performance does lend further support to the expectation that Port Adelaide were a bit better than their win-loss record indicated last year. The rankings currently have them fourth, and just a touch behind second, so I’m certainly high on their prospects. Also on this basis, I am predicting a close game for them against the Magpies at the MCG on the weekend. However, if Port Adelaide got up in a close game that the majority of football ‘boffins’ expect them to narrowly lose, would we say that supported their views on the Power and Magpies or went against them…?