AFL Rankings: Round 7 2023

What do we make of Essendon, hey?

In 2021, Essendon finished eighth and made finals, winning half their games. In 2022, they finished fifteenth. After Round 5 this season they were second. Two rounds later, they are ninth. Are they a contender, or pretender, or what?

The answer may be they are average, neither a top team or a bottom team. Their current points on my rankings is almost zero – the definition of average – with a poor finish to last season balanced out by a good start to this season. This season they have beaten lower teams Hawthorn, Gold Coast, and GWS. They have lost to higher teams St. Kilda, Collingwood, and Geelong. The one game ‘out of the box’ was their strong win at Adelaide Oval against Melbourne.

Under new coach Brad Scott, Essendon have got better both in attack and defence this season. They are averaging 97 points per game, up from 79 points in 2022. They are conceding on average 87 points per game, down from 95 points in 2022. Their inside 50 differential and contested possession differentials have improved slightly (see table below), to be about on par with their opposition. One aspect that may please the Bombers’ staff and fans is they are second for tackle differential, averaging more than nine tackles per game than their opponents (Collingwood is first – yes, good teams can win the tackle count).

Essendon has had a stronger core of good performers so far this season. In 2022, only six Essendon players averaged more than 10 AFL Player Ratings points per game. In 2023 so far, there has been 14 players. Last season only four players averaged more than one coaches vote per game; this season there are eight.

So, what do we make of Essendon? They are competitive again, though probably not a top team unless they go up another notch. That at least has to be better than the club’s experience towards the end of last season.