AFL Rankings: Round 18 2023

Nick Daicos and the Magpies are now as good as the ‘hype’

Last season, Collingwood won eleven games in a row and were two points away from a Grand Final berth. Many analysts argued though (and I would be one of them) that the Magpies won more games than you would expect given their general performances, given they won nine matches by single-figure margins, including seven wins in a row by less than two goals. This year however, Collingwood currently sit on top of the ladder with 15 wins and a sizable percentage gap, and most fans and analysts would consider them one of the best teams, if not the best team.

This change in rating is reflected in that of the Magpies’ young star Nick Daicos. Daicos at just 19 years of age received a lot of media notice in his first season in 2022. While he was impressive for a first-season player however, he was probably not among the league’s ‘elite’ players.

This year though, he looks to be very deserving of his favouritism in the Brownlow Medal. Daicos has jumped from 26 to 33 disposals a game (see table below), and now ranks first in the league this season. They’re not ‘empty’ touches either. Daicos ranks eleventh in the league for average metres gained, and eleventh for average score involvements, while averaging over nine contested possessions per game. He did not even rank in the top 150 for contested possessions and score involvements last season. He also ranks in the top twenty for average disposals per turnover, again after not even being in the top 150 last season.

Essentially Daicos is doing the things he did in defence last season, and still doing them while he spends more time in the midfield. He is averaging over one more inside 50 and two more score involvements per game, while averaging about the same number of rebound 50s. He has increased his contested possessions per game, while improving his metres gained and ability to retain possession. Daicos this season is an amazing blend of a player who has the ‘outside’ game of a general defender and the ‘inside’ game of an attacking midfielder. This is why he is third on the AFL Player Ratings this season, behind only the similarly amazing Marcus Bontempelli and Clayton Oliver (who has played only ten games).

Collingwood and Daicos last season were probably a case of seeming a bit better than they actually were through some famous close wins. This year I’d say they are actually performing as well as their ‘reputation’ suggests. Things are still close enough among the top teams that I still wouldn’t be claiming it's the Magpies' 'flag to lose' this season. But Nick Daicos and Collingwood look to have at least as good a chance as anyone.