AFL Rankings: Round 23 2023

A surprising battle for the eighth finals spot

Suddenly, unexpectedly, modern-day rivals GWS and the Western Bulldogs are fighting it out for the last AFL finals spot this season. Just a couple of weeks ago the Bulldogs were considerably more favoured than the Giants to get a spot in the final eight. The Dogs had a big advantage in terms of percentage, and were playing two of the bottom three teams on the ladder – Hawthorn and West Coast – in the next two rounds. Geelong in the final round presented a tougher match-up for the Bulldogs, but they still were widely considered a better chance of beating the Cats than the Giants were of winning on the road against a red-hot Carlton side.

Well, no more. The Bulldogs’ shock loss to West Coast on the weekend – possibly the most unexpected loss of the season – puts them now one win behind GWS, and no longer ‘in control of their own finals destiny’ (I mean, they still have control if GWS lose). Even more, GWS look a good deal more formidable than they did a week ago. The Giants kicked their highest-ever score on their way to a massive 126-point win against Essendon, which has them now as the fifth highest-rated side on the rankings heading into the final round.

If GWS beat Carlton next week they are into the finals. The rankings give them a 40 per cent chance of doing so, whereas it would have been about 30 per cent a week ago. But even if they lose they can still make it if the Bulldogs lose as well. The Dogs are given a 36 per cent chance of beating Geelong. Putting that together gives GWS roughly a 78 per chance of grabbing the last finals spot, and the Bulldogs a 22 per cent chance.

Of the two teams, given recent form/competitiveness, the Giants would be the more ‘interesting’ team to see in the finals. Still, if the Dogs can get there in the final round they’ll have (somewhat) ‘earned’ it, and we know from recent history what damage they can do from the bottom reaches of the eight.  

Locked in

The Bulldogs’ loss means that St. Kilda and Sydney are locked into the finals, as is Carlton after their win on the weekend. Credit to the Saints for making it and their performance against Geelong to clinch a spot – and they have been in the top eight all season – but it would be surprising if they got past the second week. The Swans’ season basically improved significantly after their massive 171-point win against the Eagles in Round 15, and while they have had some narrow – and controversial – wins in recent weeks, they look slightly better-placed to go further.

Carlton seem to be the most dangerous of the three teams after nine straight wins – although again, a couple of those have been narrow. Their defence has improved significantly over the season, and they now rank with St. Kilda and Melbourne in terms of their miserliness in allowing opposition scores when the ball goes inside their back 50. Unlike those two teams however, the Blues are also relatively decent at scoring when the ball gores into their own forward 50. They rank highly for clearance and contested possession differential, which in theory, should stand them in good stead for the ‘pressure cooker’ of finals.

Really, the Blues’ main weakness is they are not going to finish in the top four. So while they can probably match it with any team, they are going to have to win another four matches in a row – and against good opposition – to ultimately win the premiership. That’s hard, and unlikely – although really, any premiership is ‘unlikely’ for any one specific team – but after ten years out of the finals, Carlton fans may be content just to get any finals wins back under their belt.