AFL Rankings: Round 2 2024

The Sydney Swans have got off to a good start to 2024, winning their first three games, including wins over 2023 finalists Collingwood and Melbourne. They have shot up to second place on the AFL ladder after finishing eighth last year, and up to third place on the rankings.

The Swans are not really getting the ball any more than their opponents, but they have been more effective when they have got it. They rank fifth so far for inside 50s per disposal, and fifth for points per inside 50. Sydney is getting the ball on the boot more often, increasing their kick-to-handball ratio from 1.5 in 2023 to 1.7. They are also curbing their opponents’ effectiveness, ranking sixth for opposition inside 50s per disposal. Many of their defensive statistics have been stellar – they rank fourth for average tackles, second for tackles inside 50, third for pressure acts, and third for spoils.

The player who has gained the most attention for this start is Isaac Heeney. With injuries to others Heeney has spent more time in the midfield, and leads the Swans with 15 contested possessions per game, eight clearances, and four centre clearances. In comparison, the injured Luke Parker led the Swans with averages of 11 contested possessions, five clearances, and two centre clearances last season. Further, Heeney has been more effective with his disposals, with 18 metres gained per disposal and kicking efficiency of 67 per cent per cent, compared with 11 metres and 56 per cent for Parker last season. Teams may start to work out how to restrict Heeney as the season progresses, but in that case the Swans just have a plethora of other midfielders they can turn to – including Parker when he returns – to best utilise Heeney’s talents.

The Swans were widely lauded for their off-season recruiting, bringing in former All-Australians Brodie Grundy and Taylor Adams, and premiership player James Jordon. Adams hasn’t played yet, but Grundy and Jordon have been important to Sydney’s greater emphasis on pressure, with Grundy among the top rucks for tackles and pressure acts. James Rowbottom has been the standout ‘stopper’ so far, with almost ten tackles and two tackles inside 50 per game.

After a slightly disappointing 2023, the Swans are on track to bounce bank and approach the heights of their 2022 Grand Final season. They are currently projected to win 16 games, behind only cross-town rivals the Giants. There will probably be some adjustments required once Parker, Adams, and Callum Mills return, but trying to fit in a bunch of talented players isn’t the worst problem to have.

AFL Rankings: Round 1 2024

For the first time ever, the two teams in the previous year’s Grand Final – Collingwood and Brisbane – have started the season with two losses. Weaknesses have been scrutinized, long bows are being drawn, but how bad is it really for last year’s top two teams?

First off, Brisbane were only two points away from winning their first match against Carlton – granted, giving up a 46 point lead isn’t encouraging, but they were moments away from currently being 1-1. Even then, Carlton’s accuracy is front of goal (13.8) helped them get over the line. Similarly, Collingwood were subject to exceptionally good accuracy in front of goal from their first-up opponent GWS (18.6).

Their second matches (in Round 1, naturally) were more concerning. Collingwood lost by five goals to Sydney, and didn’t look much like winning after the first quarter. Brisbane too fell away after the first quarter to lose by four goals to Fremantle.

Brisbane’s main concern so far has been converting forward entries into scores. They have had 21 more inside 50s than their opponents across their two games so far, but have had only two more scoring shots, and they rank fourth-last for scoring shots per inside 50. Two-time All-Australian forward Charlie Cameron has had a rough start to the year, with only 3.5 uncontested possessions per game (career average 6.5), and 45 per cent disposal efficiency (career average 63.7) – figures you would be almost sure he will improve upon.

Collingwood have been fairly even with their opponents across the board, except for one percenters – and obviously goals. Given the two teams they have faced – GWS and Sydney – may be the two most in-form teams at the moment, that could be viewed as slightly encouraging. In their premiership season too however, they were never really streets ahead of their opposition, with at most modest positive differentials in the main statistical categories, except notably accuracy in front of goal. Their performances so far may just indicate they were only a small step away from falling back into the pack.

That fine line extends now to the Lions’ and Magpies’ finals hopes. With the top half of teams closely bunched in terms of expected performance, a couple of losses now puts them in significantly more jeopardy of missing out. Conversely though, that also means it will only take a few wins to significantly improve their chances again. Grand Finals are obviously where everyone wants to end up, but they can exaggerate the gaps between teams – Collingwood and Brisbane were less the two dominant forces of last year than they were among a bunch of solid contenders that could have, without much surprise, made it through to the final week.

AFL Rankings: Opening Round 2024

For the rankings this year, I have made some slight adjustments to the home ground advantages. To come up with the new values, I had a look at win-loss records by state, historical betting odds and margins, and advantages in other ranking systems.

The 'default' home ground advantage has now been re-set to eight points. Matches between teams in the same city still have a home ground advantage of zero. At the other end, I've kept the advantage involving Western Australian teams - which involve much higher travel distances - at 12 points.

I've applied these new advantages to the 2023 results as well, so the ranking points for teams were slightly adjusted from the end of last year even before the 'opening round' matches.