With the early byes over, we now have a better picture of where teams sit, at least in as much as all teams have played the same number of games and have the same number of games left.
Let’s look then at each team’s expected wins for 2024, and how that has changed over the first quarter of the season (see table below).
Improvers
Geelong are one of the notable big improvers, going from 13
to 17 expected wins, and from eighth on expected wins to first. The Cats still
only sit fifth on the rankings, but they are on top of the current ladder with
valuable wins in the bank.
Essendon
had a poor end to season 2023, but they have
performed much better at the start of 2024, moving from six to 10 expected
wins. They are also pretty much killing the rankings’ predictions in the Squiggle leaderboard.
West
Coast have dramatically improved over
the past two weeks, with large wins over Fremantle and Richmond. They have
improved from two to six expected wins, possibly ending their hopes of a priority
draft pick but giving much-needed hope to supporters.
Decline
Adelaide, after being almost every ranking system’s ‘team
that was unluckiest to miss the finals’ in 2023, have had a horror start to
2024, winning just one match and losing three matches at home. They have
dropped from 14 to 10 expected wins, and – showing how even the middle teams
are – from fourth on expected wins to 14th.
Brisbane have also lost three games at home to start the
season, albeit against three of the expected top six. They have dropped from 15
to 12 expected wins, going from second on expected wins to eighth.
Hawthorn, Richmond, and North Melbourne have won just two matches between them so far, and each have two less expected wins than they did at the start of the season.
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