AFL Rankings: Round 24 2024

In most years since the AFL has had an eight-team finals series, the premiership winner has come from the top three. In part this is because the top four teams must win only three games rather than four games to win the premiership, often with home ground advantage. Also, they are usually the best or most in-form teams.

This year however, the rankings have the best teams in the finals as coming from outside the top four. Hawthorn, the Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane are the three highest-ranked teams. Collectively since Round 11 they have won 29 out of 36 games. But due to their low wins in the first half of the season, they have finished fifth, sixth, and seventh on the ladder.

In a straight head-to-head matchup, the rankings currently favour Hawthorn in any final. If they played minor premier the Sydney Swans in the Grand Final, which is played at the Hawks’ home ground the MCG, the rankings would pick them by 22 points with a 73 per cent win probability.

The Hawks however are trying to win the premiership from seventh, which means winning four games in a row. Also, their first match is against the second-ranked team the Western Bulldogs, for which they have a 57 per cent win probability. That makes a Hawks’ flag still a relatively long shot.

It is rare for a team to have more than an estimated 40 per cent chance to win the premiership at the start of the finals, and they certainly don’t this year. The teams with the best chance though may still be the top two teams on the ladder, Sydney and Port Adelaide. They start with ‘home’ finals which they are favoured to win – although Sydney, playing fellow New South Wales side GWS, will not have the home ground advantage that Port will – and with a first-week win would then have another home final to qualify for the Grand Final. On current rankings they wouldn’t be favoured in the Grand Final against Hawthorn, the Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane, but they certainly won’t have to play at least one of the Hawks or Dogs, and they have a decent shot of the other two teams being knocked out before they can get there.

Even still, there is a good chance that the premiership winner is not one of those two teams. Unless a team suddenly hits dominant form, this looks to be one of the most evenly matched AFL final eight series ever.