AFL Rankings: Round 13 2021

AFL Rankings: Round 12 2021

AFL Rankings: Round 11 2021

Now that we know who's playing where this week...

AFL Rankings: Round 10 2021

AFL Rankings: Round 9 2021

AFL Rankings: Round 8 2021

AFL Rankings: Round 7 2021

Collingwood’s drop in player stocks is part bad luck, part bad form, part self-inflicted.

Rarely has a team been so criticized for its off-season moves as Collingwood was before this season. Reportedly due to salary cap pressures the Magpies traded 2018 Grand Final players Adam Treloar, Tom Phillips, and Jaidyn Stephenson for what many thought was well less than their value. Now with only one win from six matches, including a loss at the MCG to Gold Coast on the weekend, the Pies’ list management is looking even more disastrous.

That assessment is partly fair. Treloar and Phillips were among Collingwood’s top players during their 2018 Grand Final season, though Phillips has been a bit below that form since. Injuries too though have played their part, both in the intervening years and this season. Tom Langdon and Matthew Scharenberg were two important players in the Pies’ defence during their run to the 2018 finals, but both have since been lost to the league due to injuries in their mid-twenties. Taylor Adams and Jeremy Howe are both currently out for an extended period. Of course, one player's absence is another player's opportunity, but the replacements have not been of the same value.

Aside from that though, some of those top players from the 2018 season are just not playing as well (see table below). Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Jack Crisp, and Howe when not injured are more or less the players they were in that peak Collingwood side. Adams wasn’t playing as well before he was injured though, Steele Sidebottom is a bit below his peak, and Jordan de Goey has possibly had his least productive year since his first.

At a team level, the huge shift has been in the lack of ball use the Magpies have had this year compared with past years. The Magpies rank second-last in disposal differential, and last in uncontested possession differential. In 2018 they were first in both of those categories. Treloar and Phillips were two of their top three that year for uncontested possessions per game (and Langdon and Scharenberg were in their top ten).

Surely a win for the Pies can come against North Melbourne this week. Even still though, on the evidence so far this year they are closer to ‘rebuilding’ their player list than contending.

AFL Rankings: Round 6 2021

One of last year’s finalists St. Kilda has fallen off a cliff over the past few weeks.

The AFL team that has lost the most rankings points so far this season is St. Kilda. The Saints had some moderate success last year, making the finals for the first time in nine years, and winning a final. This year they have won two out of six matches, and three of their losses have been by a combined 215 points. They have been one of the weakest teams so far in 2021 (see chart below), after being one of the better teams last season.

Only North Melbourne has scored less points and given up more points than St. Kilda this season. The Saints’ inside 50 differential is not too bad for a low team, sitting at an average of minus 4.7 per game, but they are struggling at either end of the ground. Part of this is a change in accuracy in front of goal. Last year they had a goal to behind ratio of 56 per cent, which has fallen to 52 per cent this season, while their opponents’ ratio has jumped from 49 to 57 per cent. Still they are getting far less scoring shots than their opponents as well.

Use of the ball has been a problem, with the Saints ranking second in clangers despite being fourth-last in disposals (although Brisbane’s clangers per disposal is even worse, and they are still going OK). Of the players with 50 or more disposals this year, these Saints are in the top 25 for their clangers to contested possession ratios: Bradley Hill (much-maligned this year for some of his disposals), Jimmy Webster, Jade Gresham, Dan Butler, and Ben Long.

Their contested possession success has also dropped, with the third-lowest contested possession differential and the second-lowest (again, only ahead of the Kangaroos) if one takes out clearances. This has not been helped by Jade Gresham (out now for the season), Zak Jones, and Rowan Marshall playing a combined nine matches, but even many of their remaining players are winning less of the contested ball.

Can it be turned around? They do have most of the same list as last year, but at the moment too many of their players are producing at a lower standard compared with 2020's finals run. Still, even if finals are already out of reach, you would think they will finish better than ‘the lowest aside from North Melbourne’ this year.