AFL Rankings: Round 14 2024

A few weeks ago, I said that Hawthorn may be better than what many were giving them credit for. This was based on the Hawks having more contested possessions and similar inside 50s to their opponents but falling down in converting forward opportunities to goals. Since then, the Hawks have won six out of seven matches, and only lost their other match in the final seconds. They are fourth for ranking points over their past seven matches, behind only the three current top-ranked sides Sydney, Brisbane, and the Bulldogs, two of whom the Hawks have beaten over that period.

What the Hawks have done better over the past seven weeks is indeed better convert forward entries into goals. Their average inside 50s per game have actually fallen slightly, but they are averaging about four more scoring shots and four more goals (see table above). They are also allowing a few less inside 50s by their opponents per game. With their better conversion rate, the Hawks are now more the standard of side that could play finals, although they still face an uphill battle to make it after their slow start – even if we did rank them more in line with their recent form.

Heave-hoed

Man, did I put the mozz on Fremantle after spotlighting them last week. Their uncontested ‘keepings off’ game style got dismantled by the other team that really likes to handle the ball – the Western Bulldogs – as they were beaten by 67 points, conceded 23 goals, had 69 less uncontested possessions, and 42 less marks. They did still win the clearances though, so there’s that. I’ll take this as a delayed response to spotlighting how good the Western Bulldogs are the week before.

AFL Rankings: Round 13 2024

The Fremantle Dockers were widely considered to be a slight disappointment last season. They jumped from eleventh to fifth in the 2022 season with a young team, and were expected to again play finals in 2023, but instead they fell back to ten wins and fourteenth spot.

By the rankings this change was more marginal – the Dockers finished a few spots higher in 2022 than they were ranked, and dropped just over a goal’s worth in ranking points in 2023. In 2024 up to about the season’s halfway point, it looked like they had moved back a bit closer to their 2022 form again, although given the closeness of teams in the middle of the ladder, not necessarily with the same lofty result.

That was until their 92 point demolition of Melbourne in Round 12. That has vaulted the Dockers up to the league’s second highest percentage and third on the rankings. Suddenly Fremantle are looking as good as any team not named the Sydney Swans.

The Dockers play a very noticeable high possession, uncontested game style. They lead the league in average handballs per game, and in disposal and kicking efficiency. Much of this happens in their backline, with Luke Ryan and Jordan Clark being in the top ten for disposals and marks per game for defenders. This seems to have been quite successful in preventing opposition scores, with the Dockers having the second best rebound 50 to opposition inside 50 ratio, and conceding the fewest points on average this season.

Fremantle is not just relying on retaining possession to get things done though, as they also have the third best contested possession differential in the league – including a massive +42 differential in their most recent win against Melbourne. In particular, the Dockers have been dominant at the stoppages, with an average clearance differential of +9. Amazingly, they almost doubled the clearances of a Demons midfield that included Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, and Jack Viney. Caleb Serong leads the league in average clearances per game this season of players who have played more than seven games, even ahead of noted clearance ‘beasts’ Matt Rowell, Nick Daicos, Marcus Bontempelli, and Patrick Cripps.

That does however mean their ‘post-clearance’ contested possessions are slightly down, and there might be a question of how much they can rely on their ball retention under the ‘pressure cooker’ of finals. Further, the Dockers have beaten no team in the top eight – although they came close to winning three of those matches. Good signs are there for Fremantle though, and a performance like their most recent one more often than not is indicative of a team headed towards the upper end.

AFL Rankings: Round 12 2024

The Western Bulldogs are considered by many to be one of the most ‘talented’ teams in the AFL. That perception might be partly due to having arguably the league’s best player Marcus Bontempelli, partly due to having a strong midfield, and partly due to having multiple young, tall talented forwards – more so than they actually have a ‘stacked’ playing list.

Nevertheless, when the Dogs lost to Hawthorn and were three wins from eight matches, commentators were starting to frame the coaching obituary of Luke Beveridge. There were perceptions that Beveridge had lost the playing group, and potentially ‘lost the plot’, with unusual moves such as subbing or dropping former All-Australians Jack Macrae, Caleb Daniel, and Bailey Dale, as well as highly touted rookie Ryley Sanders.

Since then, the Bulldogs have won three out of four matches, losing only to top-placed Sydney in a match where they had six more scoring shots. The Dogs may currently sit outside of the top eight on the AFL ladder, but they have been fairly strong overall, with basically the league’s second best percentage (with Fremantle) behind the Swans. Some inaccuracy in front of goal possibly cost them a couple of wins, losing both to Sydney and Essendon despite having more scoring shots.

The Bulldogs are also performing well in some key areas, which suggest they might be able to sustain their high points differential. They are currently first for disposal differential, second for inside 50 differential, second for clearance differential, and sixth for contested possession differential. To be sure, big wins against Richmond and West Coast helped boost their percentage and other differentials, but the Dogs’ overall profile is still that of a team placed higher than they currently are.

A major reason for this is again of course Marcus Bontempelli, who is performing just as well if not better than last year. The Bont is currently the league’s highest-rated player this season who has played more than two games (according to AFL Player Ratings), once again ranking high in contested possessions, inside 50s, and score involvements. Injuries to his main ‘offsider’ Tom Liberatore have hurt, but his production has been ably filled by Adam Treloar, who is getting about as many possessions and more inside 50s than he ever has.

A long-term injury to Aaron Naughton, who had been the league’s highest-rated key forward, may decrease their ability to kick goals over the next several weeks, not helped by a two-match suspension to their next best forward Sam Darcy. Win the next two at home against Brisbane and Fremantle though, and the Bulldogs might find themselves in a decent position going into the home stretch.

AFL Rankings: Round 11 2024

AFL Rankings: Round 10 2024

AFL Rankings: Round 9 2024

Essendon are ‘defying’ the rankings so far this season, currently sitting third on the AFL ladder – albeit a draw away from seventh – while still being only ranked fourteenth. Why the large discrepancy?

First, Essendon have a very low percentage for a third-placed team. Three of their wins were by a goal or less, and their two losses were by almost 100 points combined.

Second, Essendon had a terrible end to 2023. They lost three matches by 70 points or more, and they beat West Coast and North Melbourne by a combined 10 points. Their average net margin adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength was -45 points over their last seven games (see chart below). That is still one-third of the games included in the Bombers’ current ranking.

Not having much of an effect is the fixture. Essendon do have a couple of easy games coming up, but so far in 2024 they have played a mix of strong, average, and weaker teams.

Are the rankings placing too much weight on the Bombers’ poor end to 2023? Possibly. In 2024, they have a slight position average adjusted net margin, which would place them around the middle of the pack for teams – about where they would sit if the Magpies had scored one more point on Anzac Day. They were around average for a fair chunk of 2023, before falling away at the end. That seems about where they are at, and around where the rankings – with some valuable wins already in the bank – have them eventually finishing this year.

 

AFL Rankings: Round 8 2024

Richmond are last for free kick differential (free kicks for less free kicks against) so far in 2024. They were second-last (per game) in 2023. They were last in 2021 and 2022, second last in 2020, and last in 2017 and 2018. How does it keep happening?

One theory was the game style that the Tigers played under coach Damien Hardwick, or at least the style they played during their golden era from 2017. However, Hardwick left as coach part way through last year. His new team the Gold Coast Suns are third for free kick differential. And under new coach Adem Yze Richmond are not a high-pressure team, ranking last for tackles and low for pressure acts. Perhaps it’s more to do with the players?

Richmond are losing the free kick count in most areas of the ground (see table below), although the two areas where they are most significantly doing so are for Midfielders and Key Defenders. For Midfielders, it’s their wings Kamdyn McIntosh and Marlion Pickett that have the largest negative differentials. For Key Defenders, it’s Dylan Grimes – who has had an even free kick differential for most of his career – and inexperienced talls Ben Miller and Tylar Young. Ruck Toby Nankervis also continues to be a main ‘offender’. But Nank aside (and Grimes, but he’s only a recent ‘offender’), that’s hardly the ‘spine’ of the modern Richmond era. Shai Bolton used to have a heavy negative differential too that contributed to past results, but has improved over the past two years.

So the negative Richmond free kick differential has persisted through changes in coach and players. Maybe the Tigers just keep finding ‘undisciplined’ players? Maybe it’s a game style that has persisted after Hardwick? Or – as much as this blog tries to find evidence that isn’t ‘conspiratorial’ … maybe this trend has reached a point to conclude that Richmond could be umpired a bit differently?

All that said, the free kick differential probably isn’t hurting Richmond a huge amount (other than supporters’ mental health), just as it did not stop them from winning premierships in 2017, 2019 and 2020. A contested possession is estimated by Champion Data to be worth about a point, so on that basis the Tigers’ free kick differential is costing them perhaps about a goal per game in points differential, although possibly a bit more if their defenders are more often getting pinned. That might cost them a win or two in a year where they are lacking them – although the ‘silver lining’ is it might also give them a higher draft pick…

 

AFL Rankings: Round 7 2024

Hawthorn on the weekend had five more clearances and 18 more contested possessions than their opponents, the Sydney Swans. They had only four more turnovers, and only three less inside 50s. Yet they lost by 76 points.

For the Hawks, it’s been a similar story throughout the season. They have averaged five more contested possessions per game, had about the same amount of possession chains (intercepts + clearances – turnovers) excluding kick-ins, and had similar inside 50s to their opponents so far this season. But they have only one win so far, against bottom team North Melbourne, and have on average scored five goals less than their opposition.

Part of it is their inaccuracy in front of goal, and part of it is their inefficiency in converting forward entries into scores. Hawthorn ranks second-last for points per scoring shot, and last for scoring shots per inside 50 in 2024. They are a lower-ranked, lower-expectation version of the problems that have plagued Brisbane this season.

This could be in part personnel. Of the forwards, Dylan Moore is well-known to be rated highly. But on the AFL Player Ratings the next best forward is Jack Ginnivan at #17, also indicating this is the area of the ground the Hawks are falling short in. On the positive side, if Hawthorn can get this part of their team right, the ‘rebuild’ may look and do somewhat better than many are currently giving credit for.