How Should I Vote?

As any Australian aged 18 or over ought to know, next week is the Australian federal election, and I am once again faced with the choice of who to vote for. At first it would seem that, no matter my political persuasion, I am actually in an electorate where my vote is important. I am currently living in the electorate of Melbourne, which is narrowly held by the ALP, but could potentially go to the Greens. If the election is tight between the ALP and the Coalition, this may potentially be an important seat for the ALP to win, and conversely, important for the Coalition that the ALP not win. It is also important for the Greens as well, not in terms of influencing the overall result of the election, but because they have never held a federal seat in the Lower House.

So it would seem my vote could potentially have historical implications then...? Well, not really. As Andrew Leigh (who happens to be running in this election) once noted, the historical chances of one vote determining the outcome in an electorate is about 1 in 4500. That is, the typical Australian would have to wait 1500 years before their vote actually changed the result in an electorate. So any thoughts I have about which way I should strategically vote in this election are essentially useless.

How then should I vote? My vote may actually have some effect, as minute as it is. Under federal election funding rules a candidate is eligible for election funding if they receive 4 per cent of the formal first prefence votes in the state or territory they contested. This funding is around $2 per eligible vote.

Which leads to me this conclusion: I shouldn't vote with a view to influencing the election result but with a view to which candidate/party I want to see public funding directed to (provided I think that candidate will get at least 4 per cent of the vote). Will this make any tangible difference to my vote in the end? I'll find out next week.