The Ephemerality of Triple J’s Hottest 100

Each year, Australian radio station Triple J’s ‘Hottest 100’ counts down the 100 ‘hottest’ songs of the past 12 months as determined by its (mostly Australian and indie-loving) voters. The list is typically a mixture of the classic and the ephemeral – i.e. songs that hold up over time, and songs that are essentially just the flavour of the moment.

In 2013, Triple J ran a vote for the hottest 100 overall songs since the countdown switched to its annual format in 1993. This vote can give us an idea of how transient the songs in the yearly countdown are. If the top songs each year – more specifically, the Top 5 - are full of timeless classics than these should have more or less occupied the Top 100 slots in the twenty year vote (ignoring that some years are better for music than others), if not, then few of them will have made it.

As it turns out, 46 of the 100 songs that had been in the annual Top 5 made the 20 Year Anniversary list. By country, it looks like songs that make the Hottest 100 Top 5 from the UK and US are most likely to still be liked by Triple J listeners down the track (see table). Top 5 songs from Australia are more likely to fit into the ‘flavour of the moment’ category.

Country	Total Top 5 Hottest 100 Songs	Made 20 Years of Hottest 100 Countdown	%
Australia	42	15	36
US	32	17	53
UK	19	12	63
Others	7	2	29

By era, Top 5 songs from the first decade (1993-2002) of the Triple J Hottest 100 were more likely to make the 20 Year list, although not by a lot. Note too that only 3 Australian songs made the Top 5 during 1993-1997, so this pattern by era is in part related to Australian entries being more ephemeral. 

Era	Total Top 5 Hottest 100 Songs	Made 20 Years of Hottest 100 Countdown	%
1993-1997	25	14	56
1998-2002	25	12	48
2003-2007	25	10	40
2008-2012	25	10	40

Unsurprisingly, 27 of the 46 Top 5 songs that made the 2013 countdown finished either #1 or #2 in their original year.

 

The last point to make is one that gained some notice at the time – very few songs by female solo artists or bands fronted by females made the 20 Years of the Hottest 100 list. Indeed, of the songs that did, only three had been Top 5 songs in an annual countdown (‘Big Jet Plane’, ‘Zombie’, and ‘Little Talks’), and all of those had been #1 or #2. Missing out were ‘Linger’, ‘Cannonball’, ‘It’s Oh So Quiet’, ‘Celebrity Skin’, ‘Weir’, ‘London Still’, and ‘Scar’ (yep, there were only 10 candidates).

So if Triple J does a similar countdown again in 2033, which of this year’s Hottest 100 Top 5 would have the best chance of making it? Probably Vance Joy’s ‘Riptide’ – even though Australian tracks hold up less well than US or UK tracks as far as voters go, former #1s tend to hold up pretty well unless there is a strong novelty element to them. After that though the Arctic Monkeys’ ‘Do I Wanna Know?’ probably has the best chance, while Lorde’s ‘Royals’ – with the double ‘whammy’ of being from outside the US or UK, and being by a female solo artist – may struggle more than your average #2 song. But who knows; maybe tastes will have changed considerably by 2033?