Monday, June 30, 2014

AFL Power Rankings: Round 15 2014

RISING UP

Port Adelaide’s older, shakier brother the Adelaide Crows started 2014 relatively badly, but they have lifted over the past few weeks with good wins over North Melbourne, and the Power themselves on the weekend. The win now places the Crows at #7 on the rankings, and just a game outside the eight on the actual ladder, indicating that they still have a reasonable chance of playing an elimination final this September.

FALLING DOWN

Geelong’s form over the past five weeks: thrashed by Sydney, just beat Carlton, hammered bottom-ranked St. Kilda, beaten easily by Gold Coast, just beat Essendon. The Cats have not been rated this low since Round 16 2012 – that time around they soon lifted their form (despite a finals loss to the Dockers), which they then carried into a top four finish in 2013. But even the Cat Empire has to come to an end someday, and perhaps enough of their golden generation have now reached the age where the Cats may return to the pack.
ALSO OF NOTE
I am posting this on Monday because, like Collingwood and Carlton supporters, I could not be bothered with football on Sunday night. Actually the real reason was that I have been getting up early to watch those other football matches at the World Cup, and therefore went to bed before the Pies/Blues match had even finished.

 

Monday, June 23, 2014

AFL Power Rankings: Round 14 2014

RISING UP

The Gold Coast Suns move into positive territory this week for the first time in their history after comfortably beating Geelong for the Gary Ablett Junior Cup. The Suns’ rise from terrible to respectably average is similar to that of Port Adelaide’s in 2013, and like the Power last year they look a good chance to play in the finals. They will also be hoping that, like the Power in 2014, they continue on an upward trajectory from average to really very good.

FALLING DOWN

Meanwhile, about 80 kilometres away, the other Queensland team the Brisbane Lions has sunk to depths not seen not in Woolloongabba for some years. The Lions’ 70-odd point loss to the Dockers’ last weekend did not see them lose too many more ranking points (it was only a bit more than the margin that was expected), but they have still declined the most of any team so far in 2014.
ALSO OF NOTE
Usually this time of year I do a mid-year All-Australian team. But I have watched so little AFL since Richmond’s Demon Doomsday a few weeks back that I couldn’t even pretend to know who the best 22 have been this year, aside from the obvious picks like G. Ablett and S. Pendlebury. I will try and muster up enough interest though to sham my way through picking an end-of-year side.

 

Sunday, June 22, 2014

The Wooden Finger Five - June 2014


1.       Stevie – Kasabian

Kasabian called their latest album ’48:13’? Who are they trying to fool with this ‘arty’ stance? Tom and Serge disappointed me a little bit with their most recent album, ‘Velociraptor’, which seemed a tad uninspired after the slightly-bonkers quasi-psychedelicia of the excellent ‘West Ryder Pauper Lunatic Asylum’. The new album veers back away from trad-rock, with mixed results, but when they get their blend of the anthemic and the trance-like right, as they do on ‘Stevie’, it is Kasabian at their very best. The boys from Leicester also hit the mark on ‘Clouds’ and single ‘Eez-eh’, less so on ‘Treat’ (‘everybody knows I work it, work it like a treat’ – repeat ad nauseum).  

 
2.       Cruel World – Lana Del Rey
 
Probably nothing else Lana Del Rey does in her career will hold the same excitement for me that I felt when I first saw the clip for ‘Video Games’ on YouTube – I must have watched it seven times within 24 hours of first seeing it. Her album ‘Born To Die’ was, for me, a bit of a let-down, mostly filled with middling ballads. From my first couple of listens new album ‘Ultraviolence’ seems to me an improvement; there are a few more hooks and surprises in the tunes, and Lana actually has more than one tone in her voice. Opening track ‘Cruel World’ is a good example of this more adventurous stance, clocking in at over six-and-a-half minutes and never really knowing when to end, it is in my view the track on this album that comes closest to matching ‘Video Games’ for atmospherics.   
 
3.       The Fragile Army (album) – The Polyphonic Spree
 
I never listened much to the Polyphonic Spree after their first album, and by God, now do I regret it. I regret even more not seeing them perform in the late-2000s, which would be just after ‘The Fragile Army’ album was released. No longer a novelty pseudo-cult in white robes, the Polyphonic Spree had turned into an excellent indie-pop group, using their 20-something vocalists to create some joyous and sublime harmonies for their catchy tunes. Single ‘We Crawl’ – probably the reason I did not pay much attention to this album when it first came out – is actually for me one of the weaker tracks. Better are tracks three through five – ‘Get Up And Go’, ‘The Fragile Army’, and ‘Younger Yesterday’, along with ‘Light To Follow’, ‘Watch Us Explode (Justify)’, and closer ‘The Championship’.
 
Anyone who has listened to the Horrors’ two most recent albums, ‘Primary Colours’ and ‘Skying’ will know pretty much what to expect from their new one ‘Luminous’. Like much of the Horrors’ output, this is a brooding track that sounds like it was recorded in a tunnel, but this one stands out for its infectious chorus, pleasant synth, and rowdy guitars, that will have you singing along even as you lurk alone moodily in an alleyway.
 
5.       Love Goes To Buildings On Fire – Will Hermes
 
Wait, isn’t that a song by the Talking Heads? Yes it is, but it is also the title that Will Hermes has taken for his new book about the New York music scene of the mid-1970s. Most people who are interested in picking up this book will already know a bit about Patti Smith, Bruce Springsteen, the New York Dolls, Blondie, Television, the Ramones, and Talking Heads themselves. The stories that may be less well-known are those of Grandmaster Flash and the beginnings of hip-hop, and the main jazz and salsa figures of that period. The book even follows composer Philip Glass through the triumphs and tribulations of his four-part opera’ Einstein On The Beach’. Looking behind the scenes of the punk icons was naturally of the most interest to me, but it is good that Hermes chose to take a more expansive view of the city and its music, often through personal recollections. CBGB sounds like it was a real dive. 

Saturday, June 21, 2014

BEER!![14] – Kaiserdom: Limited World Edition 2014


Name:  Kaiserdom Premium Lager: Limited World Edition 2014.

Brewery: Kaiserdom

Place Of Origin: Germany.

Type: Not a premium lager, but a pilsner apparently.

Alcohol Content: I thought I had blown this point by stupidly recycling the can 20 minutes before I began writing this. Fortunately, the internet is here to tell me it was 3.7%.

Why I Bought It: It’s a huge can advertising the World Cup. I couldn’t help but imagine cracking it open at 3am as I watched the Socceroos.

Taste: Pretty bad to begin with actually, it tasted a bit like alcoholic Dettol. But it got better as I got further down the can, and by the end was fairly drinkable.

What I did while drinking it: Didn’t watch the Socceroos actually. I watched the replays of the matches from the night before – Japan v Cote d’Ivorie, and Uruguay v Costa Rica. Is that Costa Rica in the photo there trudging off the pitch at half time before mounting their comeback?

What I did after drinking it: I was a little pleased that I wouldn’t feel compelled to drink another of them until 2018.  

Sunday, June 15, 2014

AFL Power Rankings: Round 13 2014

RISING UP

Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney were diabolical in 2013, but have become merely bad in 2014. Both teams scored a win on the weekend, and have gained about 30 rankings points each in 2014; that is, they are considered about five goals better. This week is the first week neither of them have been ranked last since Round 14 2012.

FALLING DOWN

St. Kilda’s 96 point loss to Geelong, coupled with GWS’ comfortable win in Brisbane, sends the Saints to the bottom of the rankings for the first since I started compiling them. Apart from Brisbane, the Saints’ have lost the most ranking points so far in 2014.

ALSO OF NOTE

Hawthorn, Sydney, Fremantle and Port Adelaide are now the clear top four teams – will they be the preliminary finalists in 2014?

Monday, June 9, 2014

What Has Happened To Richmond?

- The coach can’t coach?
- They lack leadership?
- They got ahead of themselves?
- They haven’t recovered from last year’s finals loss?
- They are mentally soft?
- They lack confidence?
- They are too slow?
- They recycled the wrong players?
- Their game plan is faulty?
- The team is cursed?

Alright, what has really happened? Maybe some of these explanations are true, but the answer is probably not as extreme as the above explanations suggests. Let us have a look at each player’s SuperCoach rating for 2014 compared to 2013.

The interesting column is the last one. With the players ranked from ‘most productive’ to ‘least productive’ (ignoring for now positional differences in SuperCoach ratings), it shows the cumulative difference between the average ratings of the top x ranked players in 2014 compared to 2013. So for example, the top 4 ranked players in 2014 collectively average over 17 less SuperCoach points in 2014 than in 2013.

2013

Games
SuperCoach average
Total SuperCoach points
1
22
107.09
2356
2
23
104.35
2400
3
23
100.39
2309
4
20
98.95
1979
5
23
91.74
2110
6
21
91.67
1925
7
23
87.43
2011
8
9
84.67
762
9
22
84.00
1848
10
23
82.52
1898
11
21
80.52
1691
12
21
80.38
1688
13
12
77.92
935
14
17
76.47
1300
15
20
76.40
1528
16
18
75.44
1358
17
19
74.37
1413
18
6
73.83
443
19
16
71.56
1145
20
5
70.60
353
21
11
69.00
759
22
22
67.73
1490
23
18
67.33
1212
24
12
62.08
745
25
9
58.44
526
26
16
56.12
898
27
5
53.00
265
28
22
49.14
1081
29
9
46.11
415
30
6
39.33
236
Team avge
1699
Best 22
1827
Ratio
0.9299645

2014
Games
SuperCoach average
Total SuperCoach points
Cumulative difference
1
8
100.88
807
-6.21
2
11
98.73
1086
-11.83
3
11
98.00
1078
-14.22
4
8
95.62
765
-17.55
5
7
94.43
661
-14.86
6
11
88.18
970
-18.35
7
11
87.18
959
-18.60
8
10
86.90
869
-16.37
9
11
85.82
944
-14.55
10
6
83.33
500
-13.74
11
9
81.56
734
-12.70
12
6
81.17
487
-11.91
13
8
75.12
601
-14.71
14
11
75.09
826
-16.09
15
10
74.20
742
-18.29
16
5
71.00
355
-22.73
17
11
70.00
770
-27.10
18
9
69.00
621
-31.93
19
8
68.50
548
-34.99
20
3
68.33
205
-37.26
21
7
63.00
441
-43.26
22
10
61.30
613
-49.69
23
3
56.33
169
24
7
51.57
361
25
6
50.67
304
26
5
46.40
232
27
11
46.18
508
28
4
45.75
183
29
7
44.00
722
Team avge
1642
Best 22
1777
Ratio
0.9238237

What we can see by this is that the drop off at Richmond has been at the top end and the bottom end of the list. At the top end, both Trent Cotchin and Brett Deledio are averaging about 10 less points each in 2014 compared to 2013. It is not completely clear why they have taken a step back – for Deledio early season injuries may have played a part – but their drop in form looks to be a significant part of Richmond’s deterioration in 2014.
The middle part of Richmond’s list – which is the part which seems to be under the most fire – is actually collectively pretty much the same as in 2013. Brandon Ellis, Reece Conca (despite being dropped recently), and Jack Riewoldt are performing a bit better in 2014 (with Ellis and Conca being young this is not that surprising), while Bachar Houli, Alex Rance (who has been injured), Tyrone Vickery, and Shaun Grigg are performing a bit worse. Collectively though, it pretty much evens out.
The other drop off then has been among the bottom seven. It is a little hard to compare because the bottom seven is fairly variable due to injuries, omissions, and positional differences, but the cumulative column suggests there has been a fall in performance among this group. In particular, Chris Newman and Nick Vlastuin have taken a step back. In Newman’s case this may be because he is relatively old, but Vlastuin is only young, so it is less obvious what is affecting his form. The retirement of Shane Tuck, the reduced use of Nathan Foley, and the absence of Jake King also look to have contributed to the reduced performance from the lesser lights.
Overall then, keeping in mind the caveats around SuperCoach player rankings, a drop off in form among Richmond’s best two players and also their bottom players seems to be what is driving the Tigers’ lesser performance in 2014. Given that, it is not clear what the solution should be. In terms of the lower rung players, maybe it is going to take a while for the Tigers to bring through more productive players to replace the departed Tuck, and the aging Newman, Foley, and King. In terms of Cotchin and Deledio, maybe they are out of form or being more heavily targeted by opposition clubs. In any case, sacking the coaching staff, gutting the list, and detonating Punt Road may be a little extreme as a way of fixing what ails the yellow and black in 2014. 

Amendment: Readers may wonder, as I did later, why Ivan Maric and Jake King do not appear on the 2014 list. I got the stats from Footywire, and they had limited the view to players with 3 games or more. In any case, it is clear the absence of Maric, who was one of the Tigers' top players in 2013, has also hurt them in 2014,