After holding the number one ranking spot for three weeks the Adelaide Crows are knocked off the top by the Brisbane Lions, who beat them at home by three points over the weekend. However the main consequence of this result is more likely to be to switch which club will host the Grand Final rather than which clubs will get there.
For example, following the Round 5 results the FMI website estimates that Brisbane has a 97 per cent of finishing first or second, and Adelaide has a 93 per cent chance. The Lions’ win on the weekend though has increased their estimated chances of finishing first from 32 per cent to 66 per cent. (The chances based on my rankings would be different, but not by much.)
Carlton and Melbourne are not wholly without a shot, but it looks like we’ll see our first ever AFL Grand Final played outside of Victoria this year.