AFL Power Rankings: Round 10 2017

This week, now that we are almost halfway through the season, I’ve brought back the ‘change over past five matches’ indicator to sit alongside the ‘change over season’ figure. The main thing to notice is that many of the top teams have come back to the pack over the past five weeks with some less than dominant performances. But since they have pretty much all fallen together Adelaide and GWS retain a clear advantage over the other sides, with the exception of Port Adelaide, who has joined them at the rankings’ summit.

This means that the clubs can be basically categorised like this:

• Top sides – Adelaide, Port Adelaide, GWS.
• Second tier sides – Geelong, Sydney (though they’re only mid-range if you take out last season’s results), Western Bulldogs, and arguably West Coast.
• Mid-range sides – Melbourne, Collingwood, North Melbourne, St. Kilda, Richmond.
• Lower sides – Hawthorn, Essendon (also mid-range if you take out last season’s results), Gold Coast, Fremantle (they may be in the eight, but they’ve had some close wins and some horrible beltings), Carlton.
• Way worse than everyone else – Brisbane.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 9 2017

So after the past few weeks of strangeness which team has emerged as the best in the AFL? Adelaide is back on top of the rankings, but with a much diminished lead compared with three weeks ago. The Crows were awful in two of their past three matches, against the Kangaroos and Melbourne, but take away those two matches and they have been the best side so far this season. If the horrible version of the Crows has been put away, never to re-emerge again in 2017, then Adelaide should be hard to stop.

A few weeks ago Greater Western Sydney looked to be the Crows’ biggest challenger. The Giants though have been mediocre the past four weeks. Even though they eventually won three of those matches, those were all narrow wins at home, and none of them were against the top sides this season (though the Bulldogs are the reigning premiers). If GWS cannot recapture its earlier form it will quickly fall into the second tier of sides, no matter what its current, somewhat flattering ladder position may suggest.

The best side in 2017 so far though has been Port Adelaide. Port’s only ‘bad’ performance of the year has been its loss at home to West Coast, otherwise it was decent in its losses to Adelaide and GWS, and downright scary in its five other matches to date. If I had to talk up any team’s chances in this up-and-down year it would be the Power.

Note though that last year’s runners-up (and top ranked side) Sydney has re-emerged as a good team over the past couple of weeks after a horrid start to 2017. It remains to be seen whether the Swans are too far back now to make a meaningful tilt at the flag. If they sneak into the finals though then they could take out a couple of 'second tier' sides along the way.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 8 2017

I don’t know what is going on with this season anymore …

AFL Power Rankings: Round 7 2017

After making my proclamations last week about which teams were likely to make the top eight and top four at season’s end, most of those teams lost over the weekend. The top two clubs, Adelaide and GWS, both had losses that were surprising to many observers. The other two teams I had marked for the top four, Geelong and Port Adelaide, also lost. Port marked my statement that, contrary to the bookmakers’ odds, it was a better bet to make the top four than West Coast by promptly losing to the Eagles (although it did have a lot more of the attack), which may prove enough to swing their respective positions at season’s end. On the other hand the top eight teams may have become a bit more set with St. Kilda winning against GWS and Melbourne losing to Hawthorn, which gives the Saints a stronger advantage in grabbing what may be the last available finals spot.

Another consequence of the top teams falling – particularly Adelaide’s big loss against North Melbourne – is that the top seven clubs at the end of 2016/start of 2017 (including Hawthorn rather than Port) have now lost ranking points over the course of the season. This is an indicator that the competition has become a bit more even this year. Indeed, based on the standard deviation of ranking points, this is shaping up as the most even season of the post-expansion (Gold Coast and GWS) era. Still I think the finals spots are pretty much settled – there may just be a few more unexpected results than usual along the way …

AFL Power Rankings: Round 6 2017

After Round 6, about a quarter of the way through the AFL season, we have a pretty good idea about the likely finalists in 2017. Adelaide and GWS are almost certain to make it. Geelong and Port Adelaide look the most likely teams to round out the top four, at least according to the rankings (and here as well), though the betting odds slightly favour West Coast and the Western Bulldogs over the Power. (Does this mean I will put some cash on Port for the top four this week? Maybe I will …)

As for fifth to eighth, West Coast and the Bulldogs look the most like filling two of those positions again, with both clubs currently in that range in both the rankings and on the ladder. Sydney, the fifth ranked side (and that seems too high), has very little chance of making the finals after starting the season with six straight losses. Conversely Richmond is still ranked down in twelfth, but has a good chance of making the finals after having won their first five games. So lock in (without actually locking in, as each of these teams can still miss): Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, and Richmond.

The final spot looks to be a fight between St. Kilda, Melbourne, and Collingwood, with the Magpies being a win back from the other two. North Melbourne, like Sydney, is probably too far away after starting the season 1-5. The betting markets also seem to like Fremantle and Essendon to give the finals a shake, but I don’t. Anyone else – unless something really strange happens … forget it. The Gold Coast Suns though, if they hold form, may at least get some significant improvement out of the season.