AFL Power Rankings: Round 10 2018

Melbourne has won its past five matches by an average of almost 70 points. Even if the Demons have played more ‘below average’ teams than ‘good’ teams over that stretch, that is amazing.

This week I originally thought of highlighting the GWS Giants and how injuries by themselves can’t explain why, over the past four weeks, the Giants have been playing at the level of Carlton and Gold Coast.

But I can’t ignore the rankings’ favourite team over the past month – the rapidly rising Melbourne Football Club.

The Demons have gained a whopping four goals worth of ranking points since their Round 5 loss to Richmond. Put another way, the rankings think the Demons are a four goal per match better side than it rated them just five weeks ago.

They’ve shot up from tenth to second in the rankings. Their average net margin, over the past five weeks – even after adjusting for estimated opponent strength and home ground advantage – is +61 points. Over the past three weeks it is +81 points. Melbourne has destroyed sides. Sure, two of their big wins were against Carlton and Gold Coast, but they beat them by far more than you would expect them to (see chart below). And their latest win was a 91 point thrashing of last year’s runners-up the Adelaide Crows, who are still a decent side even with their injuries. 

Melbourne has the highest inside 50 ratio of any team in 2018, gaining 30 per cent more inside 50s than their opposition. That is up there with the very best midfields since 2000. Over the past five weeks the Demons have had 50 per cent more inside 50s than their opponents. Superstars Max Gawn in the ruck and Clayton Oliver are the backbone upon which the midfield is built, ranking second and ninth in SuperCoach ranking averages over the season to date.

But it’s their forward line that has really taken off over the past five weeks – particularly the quartet of Jake Melksham, Alex Neal-Bullen, Jesse Hogan, and Tom McDonald. During that period Melbourne has averaged 20 goals per game, in a season where teams have only been averaging 12 per game. They took over 18 marks inside 50 metres in every one of those weeks, compared to a league average of 11 per game.

Those forward line statistics are not just due to more entries into attack. Over the past five weeks Melbourne’s scoring once inside 50 has also been about 30 per cent better than the league’s season average. According to the AFL Player Ratings, Melksham had the highest-rated performance for six years against Carlton. For a forward line that would have generally been rated as no better than average before this run few would have seen this coming.

Sceptics may still point to the fact that once you get a bad team down by about 50 or 60 points the extra few goals don’t matter. Some AFL rating systems, unlike mine, do put less weight on extra points once you get past a certain margin. If you chopped off the maximum net margin at, say, 50 points Melbourne would rank about a goal per game lower.

That still doesn’t overturn the fact that Melbourne has vastly improved in the past month to an extent not often seen. Beating up sides for weeks on end – good or bad – is exactly what many premiership contenders do.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 9 2018

Geelong was ‘poor’ against Essendon on the weekend, but don’t count them out – they’ve generally been a good side once again in 2018.

After Geelong’s 34 point loss to a struggling Essendon side on the weekend some have been quick to dismiss the Cats’ chances of finishing high on the ladder.

To be sure it was not a great night for Geelong, and the loss saw them drop to eighth on the AFL ladder, with five wins and four losses. They also dropped a couple of places on my rankings, but I still have them fourth, among sides such as Adelaide, Sydney, and West Coast. That is, despite the loss to the Bombers, the rankings still consider them a ‘good’ side. Why?

Geelong still carries over some ranking points from 2017, in which they were one of the four best sides. Note also that the AFL ladder is pretty close in 2018 – last week the Cats had shot up to third, but at the moment one bad loss brings you quickly back down again.

But the main reason that the rankings still rate Geelong so highly is that Saturday night’s loss against Essendon was the Cats’ first real ‘bad’ performance for 2018 (see chart above). Based on net margins adjusted for home ground advantage they’ve had:

• two ‘very good’ wins, thrashing GWS, and comfortably beating Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval;
• three other ‘good’ wins, against St. Kilda (even after adjusting for the Saints’ lowly rating), Collingwood, and Melbourne; and
• three losses – against West Coast, Hawthorn, and Sydney – in which they still played relatively OK.

Most teams have had at least one ‘bad’ performance to date, with ladder leaders West Coast and Richmond being the exceptions (see chart below). [P.S. The Eagles look ‘for real’ now … or at least in hot form the past few weeks. P.P.S. The Tigers’ loss to West Coast just missed the cut-off for ‘bad’.] It’s almost impossible to get through the season without at least one ‘poor’ performance (unless you are the 2000 Bombers).

To state the obvious in a way, Geelong wouldn’t want performances like Saturday’s to become part of a trend. But if it turns out to be a ‘blip’ then there’s enough other evidence to suggest the Cats are once again a good side in 2018.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 8 2018

The West Coast Eagles, second on the ladder, have been pretty good in 2018. However it’s not clear they are one of the two best teams just yet.

After eight rounds of the 2018 AFL season the West Coast Eagles are second on the ladder, and like ladder leaders Richmond have seven wins and only one loss. Richmond is currently a powerhouse, and the top-rated side on these rankings. The Eagles though are only ranked sixth. What do the rankings see that the ladder doesn’t?

The Eagles have been pretty good so far in 2018. They had strong wins against Port Adelaide and GWS over the past two weeks. Their average net margin over their first eight matches is +25, which is clearly the second best in the competition (see chart below).

But the Eagles have had a relatively friendly fixture to date. Four of their opponents so far – the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Carlton, and Gold Coast – are among the seven lowest-ranked sides. After adjusting for estimated opponent strength and home ground advantage West Coast’s average net margin is +20. This is still pretty good, but brings them ‘back to the pack’ a bit.

Apart from Richmond three of the sides that West Coast is ranked below – Adelaide, Geelong, and Sydney – were all somewhat better than the Eagles in 2017, with the Eagles just sneaking into the final eight. West Coast’s shorter record of good performances puts them a touch below those sides on the rankings.

The other side they are below is Hawthorn, although the two teams are so close in ranking points that they can be considered as basically the same level. The Hawks, like the Eagles, were only average in 2017, but have been much better in 2018. The Hawks though are currently two wins behind West Coast.

Despite the difference in wins their performances in 2018 are rated as being fairly similar, with Hawthorn being considered to have had the tougher fixture to date (see table above). West Coast’s biggest win came against the bottom-ranked Gold Coast Suns at home, whereas Hawthorn had a 67-point win against a decent Melbourne Demons side. Apart from Melbourne the Hawks have also had to play Richmond, Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, and North Melbourne – all of whom have been good or decent teams so far in 2018.

West Coast has a tougher fixture from here on in, including playing Hawthorn in Melbourne in two weeks, and hosting Richmond next week. If they can win those then the rankings will definitely consider them as being one of the top sides ‘for real’. Until then though, it still remembers a little about the team that were ‘smashed in the press’ last season. 

AFL Power Rankings: Round 7 2018

The rise and rise of the Tigers – for 21 rounds last season Richmond looked like they were merely just above average again. They’ve torn the league apart ever since. 

It’s pretty clear to every AFL follower that Richmond has improved since the end of 2016.

But for most of 2017 the Tigers were just a ‘good’ side again. Indeed they were performing at about the same level as 2015, in which they finished fifth after the home and away season, before losing their first final.

In 2016 Richmond lost some of the production it had got in 2015 – either through injury or loss of form – from ruckman Ivan Maric, defender Bachar Houli, midfielder Anthony Miles, and midfielder/forward Brett Deledio. In 2017 they were able to replace that lost production with the recruitment of ruckman Toby Nankervis, a fit Houli, the improvement of players like Kane Lambert and Nick Vlastuin, and the leap to super-stardom of midfielder/forward Dustin Martin.

But up to Round 21 of last season the Tigers just looked like a good finals side that had won a couple more matches with an easy draw. Their average adjusted net margin for 2017 matches up to that point was +7, only slightly above average. Then they went over to Western Australia and whooped Fremantle by over 100 points. Famously the Tigers then proceeded to roll through the finals, convincingly beating top sides Geelong, GWS, and Adelaide to win their first premiership in 37 years.

This year Richmond took a few weeks to get going, with comfortable but not dominant wins against Carlton and Hawthorn, and a loss to a fired-up Adelaide Crows side. But they’ve beaten the heck out of the league since – even after accounting for the relative weakness in their opposition they have an average adjusted net margin of 50 points over their past four matches, which would be 2000 Essendon and 2007 Geelong territory.

Whether Richmond can sustain that level of performance for the rest of the season remains to be seen. Josh Caddy, Jason Castagna, and Dustin Martin have been hitting the scoreboard significantly harder, and veterans Jack Riewoldt and Shane Edwards have been getting the ball inside 50 more than they ever have. Richmond rank low in disposals and clearances but at times get the ball forward seemingly through sheer pressure, pace, and momentum.

The Tigers will probably come back a bit, but that would still put them in a great position by finals time. Last year it looked like they were a pretty good team that timed their run just right. Now it looks like that may have just been the start of it.