AFL WOMEN’S Power Rankings: Round 4 2019

The Western Bulldogs partially built their success last year on racking up effective disposals. This year, they have not been racking up as many disposals nor have they been as effective.

Last year’s AFLW premiers the Western Bulldogs are struggling. They have won two out of their four matches, but their percentage is only 67.4. Two weeks ago they were beaten by 31 points by ladder leaders North Melbourne. Much more surprisingly they were beaten by 32 points this week at home by the Brisbane Lions – last year’s runners-up who had seemed to be struggling themselves.

Disposals are still a good indicator of success in AFLW

Once upon a time in the men’s version of Australian Rules, you could usually tell who the good teams were by how many disposals they got. This has become less clear over the past two decades as teams have found ways to win with a variety of styles.

In the women’s game though the rule of thumb of a greater number of disposals bringing a greater amount of success still holds up pretty well. Last year, the four teams that scored more points than they conceded were Brisbane, Melbourne, Collingwood, and the Bulldogs, and those teams ranked first to fourth in average disposals per game (see graphs below). This year the three teams with the highest percentages, and the top three teams on my rankings – North Melbourne, Adelaide, and Melbourne – also lead the league in disposals. The Bulldogs meanwhile have fallen to second-last on the disposals ladder, and it has been reflected in a drop in their performances.

The Bulldogs are getting less uncontested possessions, and their efficiency is suffering

In 2018 the Bulldogs were not only good at getting the ball, but in using it effectively. They ranked second in disposal efficiency at 60.6 per cent, trailing only Collingwood. This year, they are in last spot at 55.9 per cent.

The Magpies and the Bulldogs last year were the only teams to record more uncontested possessions than contested possessions (see graphs below). In 2019 several teams have raised their uncontested to contested possession ratio, and their disposal efficiency is better for it. The Pies and Dogs meanwhile have gone in the opposite direction, and are getting less uncontested possessions – and perhaps as a result are more often missing their targets.

The average number of clangers per game by the Bulldogs has skyrocketed from 32.3 in 2018 to 46.7 this year. Further, their turnover differentials (turnovers less opposition turnovers) over their past three games are +7, +5, and +9. That’s at the kind of levels Carlton and Gold Coast were in the men’s league last year, and it spells death for being able to remain a top-line side.

Missing Emma Kearney, but there’s more going on

Last year’s AFLW best and fairest Emma Kearney was a high-profile departure from the Bulldogs when she joined North Melbourne for this year. Kearney averaged the most disposals in the league last year, and at an excellent efficiency rate of 60.5 per cent (see tables below).

Kearney isn’t the only highly productive player missing from last year’s Bulldogs team however. Jenna Bruton joined Kearney at North Melbourne and ruck Aasta O’Connor went to Geelong, while sadly forward Brooke Lochland is injured. All of these were in the Dogs’ top ten players for effective disposals last year.

Worse for the Bulldogs, their remaining top-line players have seen the quality of their ball use plummet. Major ball-winners Ellie Blackburn, Hannah Scott, and Monique Conti all have about as many clangers in half a season as they did over the entirety of last year (see tables above). Between them they are averaging 11.5 clangers per game, compared to 6.6 last season.

The struggles of their stars however are just symptomatic of the Dogs’ problems as a whole. Nearly everyone on the team is having more trouble with their ball use, at a time when the rest of league is improving in leaps and bounds.

The tips are struggling too

Below are the rankings’ predictions for next week, for what they’re worth. Last week the rankings managed to go 0-for-5 on its tips.

In fairness to the rankings, it did indicate that two of those matches – Geelong v Carlton, and Melbourne v North Melbourne – were 50-50 prospects, and that’s pretty much how they turned out; things just went slightly the ‘wrong’ way. Funnily enough, on my own personal tips I had decided to go the other way on those matches - that’s right, against the rankings’ predictions – giving me at least two winners for the week.

AFL WOMEN’S Power Rankings: Round 3 2019

This year’s top-ranked AFLW team so far, the Kangaroos, are pulling down the marks close to their goal line.

After three rounds of the 2019 AFLW season new team the Kangaroos are the best-performed team, with three wins and a percentage of 250.8. They have won their first three matches by four goals or more, including an impressive 31-point win against reigning premiers the Western Bulldogs on Friday night.

It may seem like the Roos are winning out all over the field, and to an extent they are (they’ve kept their opponents to an average of 20 points). However they only rank fourth in terms of getting the ball inside 50 metres – with just one more than Carlton, who they actually lost the inside 50 count to in their first match.

Where the Kangaroos have outranked teams is the rate at which they score once they get the ball inside 50 metres. They have scored 153 points from 86 inside 50 entries, or 1.77 points per inside 50. That rate is better than any men’s team from last season (though the West Coast Eagles when they had Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling playing was kind of an exception).

The Roos’ forward efficiency has been helped by their prowess at taking marks inside 50. They have taken 26 marks inside 50 from their 86 entries, at a ratio of about 30 per cent. The most potent AFL men’s offence in 2018 – Melbourne’s – had a ratio of less than 25 per cent.

What also matters is where the Kangaroos have been getting those marks inside their forward zone. In this year’s Champion Data AFLW Prospectus, Chloe McMillan noted that the two AFLW premiers so far tended to get more of their scores from kicks close to goal (i.e. less than 15 metres out). A kick for goal from 30 to 40 metres out isn’t really ideal for the kicking range of some AFLW players. Watch the highlights from Friday night’s game, and you’ll see that Courteney Munn didn’t have to roam far from the goal square for any of her four goals, nor generally did the other North players.

The AFLW Kangaroos are really doing what every football team hopes to do – mark the ball deep inside 50 and get an easy set shot close to goal. Next week’s match against Melbourne – who despatched the other of last year’s grand finalists, Brisbane, by almost 40 points on the weekend – could be a belter.

AFL WOMEN’S Power Rankings: Round 2 2019

The rankings agree – the new AFLW conferences are about as lop-sided as most people think they are.

This year, somewhat controversially, the AFL has split the AFLW teams into two conferences. Ostensibly this is because, following the introduction of two new teams, it is no longer the case that all of the teams will play each other during the course of the season (a decision that was itself controversial). Critics may of course note that all of the teams in the men’s AFL do not play each other the same amount of times, and conferences have not been introduced for that (yet).

Even before the season started some people noted that one conference – Conference A – looked to be stronger than the other. First, all of the odd-placed teams from last year (first, third, etc.) were placed in one conference, and all of the even-placed teams were placed in the other. Second, the stronger of the two new teams – North Melbourne/the Kangaroos – was placed in Conference A. Third, two of the Conference B teams – Brisbane, and particularly Collingwood – were significantly weakened by losing players to the Roos.

After the first two rounds, including the first round of ‘cross-conference’ matches, there is now a spate of commentary about how uneven the conferences appear to be. As noted in The Age:

“Melbourne sit bottom of Conference A with one win and a percentage of 119.1. The Brisbane Lions, with one win but a vastly inferior percentage of 73.4, are atop Conference B.”

And since the top two teams in each conference will play off in the finals:

“It doesn’t take too deep an inspection to see how this is an issue, with an increasing likelihood that mediocre Conference B teams will take finals spots ahead of better Conference A sides.”

Are the two conferences really as uneven as they seem?

It’s probably not just the fixture

Particularly early in the season, the fixture can somewhat mask the ‘true’ strength of teams. Results obviously in part depend upon who you play and where you play them.

It’s not hard to see that it’s probably not just the fixture causing the disparity so far though. Every team in Conference A is well ahead of every team in Conference B following the first round of ‘cross-conference’ matches, and home ground advantage seems unlikely to be large enough to explain the difference. The five Conference A teams beat the five Conference B teams by an average of 20 points on the weekend, and none won by less than 13 points.

The rankings put 46 per cent of their weight on the results of the most recent two matches. Accordingly, Conference A sides now occupy five of the top seven positions in the rankings. Further, the two Conference B sides in the top seven – Brisbane and Collingwood – who as mentioned above were weakened by player movements, are falling faster than anyone.

It may well be that a significant test of the relative strength of the conferences comes in the final cross-conference match of this weekend. If Melbourne, the last-placed team in Conference A, can win away against Brisbane, the first-placed team in Conference B, then the comments that the sixth and seventh ‘best’ teams could get into the finals may gain even more momentum.

AFL WOMEN’S Power Rankings: Round 1 2019

The Kangaroos were impressive in their first match against Carlton. Their big win however may be more about the weakness of the Blues than the strength of one of the AFLW premiership favourites.

Coming into this AFLW season, new club North Melbourne/Tasmania/the Kangaroos were considered to be one of the league’s most formidable teams, on the back of their strong recruiting from other clubs.

They certainly played that way in their first match against Carlton, beating the Blues by 36 points. Many of their top-line recruits – including Emma Kearney and Jenna Bruton from the Western Bulldogs, and the ex-Collingwood quartet of Emma King, Jasmine Garner, Jess Duffin, and Moana Hope – met expectations in their first outing for their new club. Case closed then, right? After that, can anyone stop the Kangaroos this year?

Early last season a six goal win against the Blues – or any team – would certainly be a signal of a strong AFLW side. Indeed, the 12-goal thrashing of Carlton last season by eventual premiers the Bulldogs was possibly the first major sign they were one of the top flag contenders.

The thing is now though is that almost everyone has easily beaten Carlton recently. Carlton has lost its past six matches by an average of 35 points – about the same as North’s winning margin on the weekend – in a league where the average margin has tended to be about half of that amount. Even after adjusting for opposition strength and home ground advantage (see chart below), Carlton’s average adjusted net margin over that span is -29 points. Compared with a league average score of around 30 points the Blues have had 40 points or more scored against them in all of those matches, and have only once got past 22 points themselves.

This is not to take away too much from the Kangaroos’ win, or to deny that they seem to be one of the teams with the strongest chance of winning the premiership. It’s just to say that – unfortunately for the Blues’ players – what the Kangaroos did to Carlton on the weekend has recently been within the reach of most AFLW teams.

The rankings’ tips for Round 2 are below. The prediction for the Collingwood v Melbourne match should be treated with a great deal of caution. As mentioned before on this blog Collingwood finished last season really well, but they lost several of their important players between seasons, particularly to North Melbourne. Their one-point loss to Geelong on the weekend is not in itself enough to drastically change their ranking, but I would be hugely surprised if they are still so highly rated after the next couple of weeks.