AFL Power Rankings: Round 16 2019

Of the main premiership contenders West Coast is in good form, Collingwood has fallen out of form, Geelong and GWS may be stuttering slightly, and we are still getting a handle on a ‘full-strength’ Richmond.

A premiership race in five, that became three, is five again

About nine or ten rounds into the 2019 AFL season there seemed to be five main premiership contenders: reigning premiers West Coast, 2017 premiers Richmond, and ladder leaders Geelong, Collingwood, and Greater Western Sydney.

Then in Round 12 it seemed more like a ‘race in three’. An injury-depleted Tigers got destroyed by Geelong, West Coast were well beaten (by Sydney), and Collingwood had a strong win in the Queen’s Birthday match.

Move forward to Round 16, and West Coast and Richmond are considered among the leading flag contenders again. Both won by over 90 points on the weekend. With TAB, the Eagles and Tigers – along with Geelong, GWS, and Collingwood – are shorter than $10 to win the premiership, and no other team is shorter than $20.

West Coast is rising, Collingwood is falling, and we are not clear about the Tigers

Of the five main premiership contenders, West Coast seems to currently be in the best form. Its average net margin over its past five matches, adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength, is +26 (see chart below), even better than Geelong’s +18. The Eagles did get somewhat lucky by the Dockers scoring only two goals from 21 scoring shots on the weekend. On the other hand, the Eagles scored only 14 goals from 36 scoring shots against Essendon two weeks before.

Collingwood has been a below average team over its past five matches. The Magpies have lost to North Melbourne, Hawthorn, and Fremantle, and had a narrow win against the Bulldogs. It may be just a temporary slump, or it may be that their ‘peak’ ends up having been the 2018 finals, and the first few rounds of 2019.

Richmond has been a below average team over its past five matches as well. The Tigers had three fairly horrid losses in that stretch against North Melbourne, Geelong, and Adelaide. After their bye though they had several of their best players return, and have performed more like the strong side we saw in late-2017 and 2018. Richmond’s average net margin over its past three matches – even adjusted for the weakness of its past two opponents – is +24 (see chart below).

Meanwhile Geelong has lost two of its past three matches, and has a three-round average adjusted net margin of just +1. GWS has also lost two of its past three, and its three-round average is +3.

Before its recent drop in form though the Cats did clobber Richmond, and are still easily the highest-ranked team. They may be stuttering a little, but if I had to name the team I thought was most likely to win the 2019 premiership, Geelong would be it.