AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 4 2021

Yes, I will acknowledge Fremantle…

In last week’s post I said that even though Fremantle had won ten matches straight, they were ‘beatable’ and arguably hadn’t been as dominant in their wins as the Kangaroos. The Kangaroos have then proceeded to lose their second straight match, didn’t kick a goal, and the Dockers now sit on top of the rankings.

So yes, OK, the rankings say that Fremantle are the best team now. Though watch out for those Crows lurking just behind … they did have as many scoring shots as the Dockers when they played them, you know – which brings me to my next topic…

Points or scoring shots – what’s a better indicator of form?

My rankings are based on the final points margin. On the weekend though, Melbourne had double the scoring shots and inside 50s of the Bulldogs, and lost by two goals. The Kangaroos had as many scoring shots and more inside 50s than Collingwood, and lost by 20 points. As I mentioned above, Adelaide had as many scoring shots and inside 50s as Fremantle last week. Should we really be looking at the number of scoring shots instead, at least for AFLW where there’s less opportunities for goal accuracy to even out over the game?

Maybe. If we compared teams’ percentage by points this season with percentage by scoring shots, they are (probably unsurprisingly) fairly similar (see table below). The most significant changes are that Adelaide has the second best percentage, while Brisbane and Collingwood fall down the order – Brisbane in particular goes from a giant percentage of over 250 to a more ‘mortal’ 150 mark. At the other end, the improving Tigers look even a bit better.

Unlike the rankings the table above is not adjusted for opponent strength, but the scoring shot relativities don’t seem too far off where teams would be commonly thought to ‘sit in the pecking order’ so far this season. Adelaide and Brisbane seem to be more in line with where they ‘should’ be – although there could be some recency bias in that assessment given the weekend’s result – though perhaps the undefeated Magpies may seem on the low side.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 3 2021

Fremantle’s ten wins in a row is very impressive, but they still seem to be ‘beatable’.

It may seem like being a ‘hater’ to say it – I assure you I am not –  but as great an achievement as the Dockers’ ten straight wins is, don’t declare the premiership race over yet.

Yes, Fremantle flattened two-time premiers the Adelaide Crows by 30 points on the weekend, but they did it with the same number of scoring shots, less disposals, and about the same number of inside 50s (although the Dockers do tend to get higher impact per disposal). In fairness, they could well have beaten West Coast by much more than nine points if they had higher accuracy in front of goal the week before, in a game where they had 35 to 14 inside 50s.

Nevertheless, I would still say they are not a nigh-unstoppable force, just a leading contender. The majority of their ten wins have been by three goals or less. The Kangaroos have arguably been slightly more dominant overall in their wins, though they keep falling short against Melbourne and snuck home in their final against Colingwood. But another undefeated home-and-away season (assuming the season finishes), and then home finals, would certainly help the Dockers in their quest for a first flag.

Aside from the Dockers and Kangaroos, the other teams that the rankings like to contend for the final six are Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, and Melbourne, keeping in mind we do not the rest of the fixture. Carlton has only one win out of three matches, but does play Richmond next week.

Or at least they do at the moment. Here are my tips until the next set of state border closures changes the fixture…

AFL WOMEN'S Rankings: Round 2 2021

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 1 2021

Collingwood’s win against Carlton was perhaps not that much of an upset.

Welcome back to my AFLW Rankings, for season 2021.

In the season opener, Collingwood recorded a one goal win against Carlton (it would have been two goals if not for a goal after the siren to the Blues), which was largely proclaimed as an ‘upset’. This would likely be because last season, before it was prematurely halted, Carlton finished second in their conference while Collingwood finished fourth, and because the Blues easily won their first final while the Magpies narrowly lost theirs.

Collingwood though finished off 2020 really well. Their narrow finals lost was against the mighty Kangaroos, by a mere two points. Prior to that they beat Brisbane and the Bulldogs by around five goals each, and lost to the other top team Fremantle by only three points (they also lost to Melbourne – note though they also beat Carlton prior to that, but that isn’t counted in their ranking points). After adjusting margins for opponent strength and home ground advantage, that gives them an average adjusted net margin of over 20 points (see chart below).

Matter of Stats, which has just started predicting AFLW results, also have Collingwood rated highly, and forecast a Collingwood win.

[Note: if anyone is comparing the ranking points and changes with those from the end of last year, I made a slight change to the formula at the start of this year. I had been using a team’s past seven matches to calculate ranking points, but I have reduced that to six matches given the premature end to last season, and that it removes the last ‘proxy’ result for the expansion clubs. I may expand this out to nine matches as the season progresses, given the number of rounds this year… but let’s see how far we get through the season first.]