AFL Rankings: Round 2 2021

AFL WOMEN'S Rankings: Round 8 2021

AFL Rankings: Round 1 2021

Despite their high finishes in each of the past two AFL seasons, the Brisbane Lions may not be among the leading premiership contenders.

The Brisbane Lions have been among the more popular picks to win the AFL premiership in 2021, or at least to finish in the top four. This is largely based on the Lions having finished second at the end of each of the past two previous home-and-away seasons and having made the preliminary final last season. These high finishes came after several years near the bottom of the ladder, contributing to the impression of a team on the rise and poised to take the next step.

That expectation hit a stumbling block on the weekend when Brisbane lost to the Sydney Swans – a team many would have considered not to even be a finals contender – at home by over 30 points. Their upcoming match is a trip to Geelong, one of last year’s Grand Finalists, seemingly placing the Lions in significant danger of being 0-2.

Over the pre-season, the AFL ‘analytical community’ has been less bullish on Brisbane’s flag chances compared with the media and the general public. The Lions’ points for and against last season were more commensurate with a team with 12 wins (out of 17 matches) than the 14 wins Brisbane finished with [Fox Sports]. They were ‘fortunate’ in close matches; going 3-0 in matches decided by one goal or less, and 5-0 in matches decided by two goals or less. With a few scoring shots in the other direction, their record could have looked somewhat different.

A second reason Brisbane may have been ‘fortunate’ is that they have had most of their first-choice team available over the past two seasons. For the past three seasons, the Lions have had 18 players in at least 80 per cent of their matches [ABC News], which is something no other team has had since 2012. If this comes down a bit this year, the Lions may find it harder to replicate last season’s form.

The third reason is that, due to the ‘hub’ situation in 2020, Brisbane had a relatively huge net home ground advantage last year. Exactly how big that advantage was depends how you classify their ‘away’ games against non-Queensland clubs ‘hubbing’ in Queensland, but the Lions only had two matches in their opponents’ home states. That is (hopefully, given a pandemic caused it) not happening again any time soon, which may also make it harder for Brisbane to match last season’s performance.  

Brisbane had a percentage of 124.9 last season, the lowest of the top four, although still comfortably above the next four teams, with percentages of 107 to 117. However after adjusting for estimated net home ground advantage – which includes that the Victorian clubs are estimated to have had a significant net disadvantage last season – their percentage is closer to that of the sides which finished fifth to ninth. This is the range they are in on the current rankings.

Of course the Lions could improve even more this season, counterbalancing some of the above effects. Further, one loss does not a season make and the Lions could very well rebound even this week – but the main point here is that it perhaps should not be as huge a surprise as many think if Brisbane does end up sliding back a bit this season.

AFL Rankings: Pre-Round 1 2021

With the return to 20-minute quarters in 2021, I have re-adjusted the rankings by multiplying last year’s results by 1.25. The rankings prior to Round 1 2021 are therefore:

The tips based on the rankings are:

(I do have a fixture analysis, but I don’t trust the state borders enough to bother posting it.)

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 7 2021

With the prospective finalists playing off against each other in Round 7, there was a bit of a change in each team’s finals prospects, and a bit of a change in the ranking order here. The Adelaide Crows – who had been looking ominous – were stopped in their march quite sharply by an impressive Melbourne team, putting them on the edge of the top four. Brisbane squeaked past Collingwood, as tipped last week although the tip would have been different if it had been known the match would be played in Victoria, placing those two teams on almost equal footing.

This week the big matches are Brisbane against the Kangaroos, Fremantle against Melbourne, and Adelaide against the Bulldogs. The tips are that the former teams, all in the top four, will comfortably solidify their places there, but few viewers will complain if the matches are as tight as the ‘mini-finals’ we had last Sunday.

[A technical note: I’ve extended the amount of games that the rankings are calculated over back to a team’s past seven games. I’ll slide this forward progressively to nine matches over the remainder of the year.]

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 6 2021

The OG’s beat up on the new kids.

As predicted in last week’s post Round 6 of AFLW was one-sided, with the final aspirants – which aside from the Kangaroos consist of the competition’s original teams – easily beating the lower, newer sides. The average winning margin was nearly eight goals. However, since many of those teams were expected to win easily, their ranking points did not change much or even fell. The main teams that gained several ranking points included Collingwood for their six goal win against a Bulldogs side still competing for a finals spot, and Melbourne with their larger-than-expected win against a Saints team that had won a couple of games this season.

Fortunately, next week’s matches – possibly not coincidentally – are a more interesting prospect. The eight finals hopefuls play off against each other (while the other six teams try to get a rare win). The rankings predict that the field of finals contenders may effectively get narrowed to six teams, with the seventh and eighth placed teams – the Bulldogs and Carlton – tipped to be handily beaten by their opponents (the Kangaroos and Fremantle) next week.

Even if the finals race looks like it’s sorting itself out though the battle for one of the prized top two spots – which comes with a first week ‘bye’ in the finals, and hence one less win required for the premiership – could come down to the wire. The Brisbane-Collingwood matchup in Queensland looms as an important one. A Lions win will place them above the Pies, while a Collingwood win will put them two wins ahead of Brisbane with just two rounds to go.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 5 2021

The ‘old’ power is rising…

Collingwood is the only undefeated team left in the AFLW this season after five rounds, following Fremantle’s loss on the weekend. It’s a good achievement, and the Magpies should be considered one of the favourites for the premiership. The main doubt around them may be that they may not be able to count on teams being as inaccurate as their last two opponents – the Kangaroos and Melbourne scoring a combined 1.16 – going forward.

But it’s not the Magpies that will be striking the most fear in opponents’ hearts at the moment. The two-time premiership winning Adelaide Crows look to be back to something nearing their imperious best, smashing St. Kilda by 53 points on the weekend. Their four wins have now come at an average of 38 points, bringing back memories of the dominant run they went on to win the 2019 flag, before slipping last season.

The Crows’ form is clearly correlated with the form and availability of two-time AFLW best and fairest player Erin Phillips. Phillips is the equal leading goalkicker, second in marks, and seventh in contested possessions. Phillips, Ebony Marinoff and Anne Hatchard – along with Chelsea Randall arguably the main players behind the Crows’ last premiership – are all back in the top twenty for disposals. Marinoff in particular is also having a great season, ranking in the top five for disposals, metres gained, contested possessions, and clearances.

The current Crows’ side is probably not quite as dominant as that 2019 team. However they look like they’re going to again be very hard to stop.