AFL Rankings: Round 15 2020

AFL Rankings: Round 14 2020

 Melbourne has powered into finals contention on the back of its ‘fab four’.

The Demons are one of the better teams again

After an excellent 2018, and a disappointing 2019, it was hard to know what to expect from Melbourne this season. The Demons did not start off the season in sparkling form; they lost a close match to Geelong, but otherwise were not overly impressive in their first five matches. The first hint that they may have turned a bit of a corner was their seven-goal demolition of Hawthorn, where their stars (more on them below) went berserk.

In recent weeks, Melbourne has shown some more of that form, and the form that got them into the finals two season ago. They had three successive wins by more than 50 points, which is pretty impressive even when you consider the quality of their opposition (see chart above) – though Collingwood are no easybeats. 

Last week’s loss against the Bulldogs had many questioning whether it was yet another false dawn, but this week’s close win against fellow finals aspirant St. Kilda may have some Demons’ fans believing again. Only the red-hot Geelong Cats have bettered Melbourne’s average adjusted net margin of +27 points over their past five matches.

As much as I sometimes wish to highlight particular players on this blog, generally the contribution of a team’s players in Australian football is fairly even, and a team’s performance is more reliant on the quality of twenty players rather than just a few. Melbourne’s playing list however, is more lop-sided than most.

Big Maxy, Clarry, Trac, and Viney

As of the end of Round 14, Melbourne has four of the top twenty-five players on the AFL’s Player Ratings for the season: ruck Max Gawn, and midfielders Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca (the #1 player), and Jack Viney.  

While the Player Ratings sometimes is subject to raised eyebrows – such as this week when GWS forward Jake Riccardi kicked four goals and was rated the worst player on the ground – it is fairly easy to demonstrate the value of these players using less advanced measures.

Max Gawn, as is well-known, is one of the most effective rucks in the game. Currently in season 2020 he ranks second for hit outs per game, behind Brodie Grundy. Another part of what makes him really valuable though is his marking around the ground – he ranks seventh for contested marks per game in 2020, well ahead of many other top ruckman (see table below).

Meanwhile, Oliver, Petracca and Viney – as the AFL Player Ratings suggest – are possibly the most effective ‘inside’ midfield trio in the game. (Though Dogs fans will note their star midfield beat them handily last week.) All rank within the top twenty for contested possessions per game, with Oliver (#2) and Petracca (#4) sitting in the top five (see table below). No other team has three of the top 20. Oliver and Viney also rank in the top twenty for clearances per game. All three rank in the top 50 for metres gained per game, with Oliver kicking the ball more this season. Petracca, while not ranking as high for clearances, has continued to be an attacking weapon and ranks second for score involvements.

Will it be enough though to get the Demons into the finals? There’s still eighteen other players in the team who will determine Melbourne’s fate. The recent good form of defenders Steven May and Jake Lever helped get the Demons across the line on the weekend. If they can continue to support their star midfield, then Melbourne could cause some trouble this Septem - … er, October.

AFL Rankings: Round 13 2020

 

AFL Rankings: Round 12 2020

The Geelong Cats have become the most in-form side in the AFL by playing ‘keepings off’.

The Geelong Cats have become more of a premiership fancy over the past couple of weeks, with ten goal wins against St. Kilda and ladder leader Port Adelaide. The Cats have been a perennial finalist since their last premiership in 2011, but have not made it back to the Grand Final since. This has given them the label of essentially being ‘good, but not good enough’. However their two impressive wins has many reporters and commentators suggesting that things may be different this year. 

It may seem odd to say that Geelong were not a contender last year when they finished as the minor premier. They were at the top of these rankings for much of last year, and going into the finals. They did however notably slow down in the second half of the year, with an average net margin adjusted for opponent strength and home ground advantage of +12 points after their big win against Richmond, compared to +32 points in their first 12 matches.

The Geelong team of recent weeks has risen back to the form they showed during the first half of 2019. Over their past five weeks their average adjusted net margin is +40 points (see chart above), which also includes comfortable wins against Fremantle and North Melbourne, and a narrow loss to fellow premiership contender West Coast. Their run of form has given them the biggest increase in ranking points aside from Melbourne over that period, and now has them sitting on top of the rankings.

But as watchers of the Cats over the past two games would know, there is something different about their style of football this year. They seem to have taken a leaf out of the playbook of their 21^st century nemesis Hawthorn, and are favouring more short, precise kicks to hold on to the ball and move it forward.

The Cats play the uncontested game

Geelong leads the AFL this year for disposal, mark and uncontested possession differentials with their opponents, which is indicative of their increased tendency to chip the ball around (see table below). Their advantages were even greater in these areas in their two big wins against the Saints and Power. Last year, the Cats were outside the top four in all of these categories. Over the past couple of years it has been Collingwood, and last year GWS, that have used the high-possession game to most success, but Geelong is proving adept at it this season.

Several Cats have seen their disposal counts rise this year, generally the smaller players around the flanks (see table below). Two midfielders though have really seen their production grow, and have arguably been key to the Cats’ style of play in recent weeks. One is wingman Sam Menegola, while the other is Cameron Guthrie. Their disposal counts have increased significantly even without adjusting for the shorter game time this year; after adjustment their increases are even more impressive.

This is not to say that the Cats have not been good at the contested footy as well. While not as large as their uncontested possession advantage, the Cats also rank first for contested possession differential this year. Big forward Tom Hawkins dragged down an astonishing seven contested marks against Port Adelaide, although the Cats don’t rank quite as highly over the season in this category.

Will things be different this year come finals time for the Cats? It is the question that has been asked for seemingly much of the last decade. But most of their players appear to be in peak form at the moment, and as long as they can keep purring along like this, they’ll give themselves the best possible chance to finally break through to the top again.

AFL Rankings: Round 11 2020

AFL Rankings: Round 10 2020

 

AFL Rankings: Round 9 2020

This week: the Western Bulldogs continue their inconsistent form, and Essendon is exposed by one of the top sides.

Inconsistent Doggies

The Western Bulldogs lost to Richmond by 41 points on Wednesday night in a match they were never really in. It continued the Dogs’ run of inconsistent form this season. It was the Bulldogs’ fourth loss by 39 points or more this season, following big losses to Collingwood, St. Kilda, and Carlton. They have also had four wins by 24 points or more; their win against Gold Coast last week was their only close match.

Based on my adjustments of final game margin for opponent strength and home ground advantage, the Bulldogs have had the most variability in their results this season (see chart above). The standard deviation of their adjusted net margins is +39 points, the highest of any team.

However, the variability in their performances may not be quite as much as their results. Against top sides Collingwood and Richmond the Bulldogs were dismantled, with 13 more turnovers and 13 less inside 50s against the Tigers, and 71 less disposals and 20 less inside 50s against the Magpies. Against the Blues though they recorded more disposals and 12 more inside 50s; they just could not convert that edge into scores. The Saints also largely beat them through better conversion inside 50.

For the season as a whole, the Bulldogs are close to even in their differentials for disposals, contested possessions, turnovers, and inside 50s. Overall this may indicate that the Dogs are not the rising team they looked like in the back half of last year, but they may still have enough to challenge for a finals spot.

The Bombers come unstuck

Essendon may have been starting to feel reasonably confident about its finals chances this year, sitting at seventh on the ladder but with a game in hand that – if the Bombers won – would move them up to third. They were exposed by the Lions on the weekend though, losing by ten goals, and scoring only 29 points.

The Bombers had, up until that point, a reasonably easy fixture. Their win against Collingwood in Round 5 was an impressive one. But apart from that their wins had come against Fremantle, Sydney, North Melbourne, and Adelaide, who have a combined record of 9 wins and 27 losses. Further, three of those wins were by a goal or less.

This was part of why the rankings only had Essendon at fourteenth going into this round. Up until the match against the Lions the Bombers had overall been about average this season. Towards the end of last season though they had been well below average, with huge losses against Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs (see chart above).

While the Bombers will arguably not be playing anyone as strong as the Lions in the next few weeks, their fixture does become harder than it has been to date. Essendon fans would be hoping that the side that played so well against the Magpies is still lurking up in Queensland somewhere.   

AFL Rankings: Round 8 2020

St. Kilda’s improvement this season has been fuelled by its goal accuracy. Have the Saints been better or lucky?

The Saints come marching back

St. Kilda’s impressive win against Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in Round 8 moved it up to third on the AFL ladder. So far, this is looking like a significant improvement on last year’s fourteenth-placed finish, and the sixteenth-placed finish the year before that.

On the rankings, the Saints have gained more ranking points this year of any team except the Gold Coast Suns. The Saints have an average net margin this year adjusted for home ground advantage and opponent strength of +12 points (see chart below). This has been driven by impressive wins against Port, Richmond, and the Western Bulldogs. In their last 14 matches for 2019, their average adjusted net margin – also deflated to compare with this year’s shorter quarters – was -16 points.

St. Kilda has scored more points than any team so far this season besides Brisbane. However, in terms of scoring shots per game this year it only ranks tenth. Have the Saints actually improved by as much as the results suggest, or have they got a bit lucky? Or like Tim Membrey’s scissor-kick goal – is it perhaps a bit of both?

St. Kilda suddenly becomes deadly accurate

In recent years, the Saints have been somewhat let down by their inaccuracy when kicking for goal. So far this year, they have been amazingly accurate.

St. Kilda kicked 12 goals and one behind against Port Adelaide, making it the first team in the VFL or AFL in 120 years to win a match when scoring only one behind. Against Richmond in Round 4 the Saints kicked 15.3. Against the Bulldogs in Round 2 they kicked 14.4. That means in their three most impressive wins this season they scored 41.8, meaning they scored at an astonishing and seemingly unsustainable conversion rate of 83 per cent.

The Saints have generated good shots

Many AFL followers with at least a passing interest in more advanced AFL statistics would know of the concept of expected score, which is the score a team would be expected to kick given the location of their shots on goal. A really good resource for this is Stats Insider’s Shot Charting Explorer. This can help us work out if the Saints have been accurate in front of goal because they have been generating good shots, or because they have been converting those shots into goals at better rates than you would expect?

According to Stats Insider’s data, it is more the former. St. Kilda expected score this year given where they have taken their shots at goal from is higher than its actual score. The Saints’ actual scores were only slightly higher than their expected scores in their wins against the Tigers and the Bulldogs. They have still substantially improved their shot-taking from last year, but it is their shot-creating that has been really good.

Up to Round 7 the Saints had taken around 30 per cent of their shots at goal from zero to 24 metres out this year according to the Stats Inside figures, up from around 20 per cent last year (see table below). Less of their shots have come from the 25-49 metres range. Their accuracy is up by at least 10 percentage points from both the below 25 metres range, and the above 50 metres range.

Furthermore, the Stats Insider’s heat maps (see below) show that more of their shots have come from directly in front of goal rather than to the left or right, which is probably why their accuracy has improved. Last year’s heat map is fairly typical of most clubs in its spread around the 50 metre arc. This year’s heat map, once it gets near the goal mouth, is arrow-straight.

Straight shooting Jack

One player who is emblematic of the Saints’ improved goal accuracy is Jack Billings. In 2018, Billings kicked 14 goals and 19 behinds. In 2017 he kicked 23 goals and 36 behinds. West Coast’s Josh Kennedy kicked only three more behinds, and bagged 46 more goals. If Billings had been able to convert at the league average, then he would have added 1 or 2 more points per game to the Saints’ score – small in the context of the overall result, but a sizable proportion of the contribution of one player.

This year Billings has kicked seven goals and just one behind. His actual score of 43 has been 15 points higher than his expected score, according to Stats Insider. In contrast, he scored five goals less than his expected score in 2018, scoring a goal on about one-quarter of his shots from 25 metres or more.

A fair proportion of goal accuracy is random: one year’s straight shooter can be next year’s sprayer – even if you are Ben Brown. If the Saints can keep generating shots as good as they have though, they are on a fairly sustainable path.