AFL Rankings: Round 3 2022

 

AFL Rankings: Round 2 2022

Another Buddy take

There was plenty written and spoken about the career of Sydney forward Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin over the past week as he approached – and reached – the milestone of 1000 goals. Some pondered if he was the greatest goal-kicker to ever play the game. While for me that is still John Coleman, I thought I would show something beyond just the raw goal figures to show how incredible Franklin’s scoring prowess has been relative to his contemporaries.

Most people are aware of Franklin’s high number of goals compared to other key forwards of the past 20 years. What makes that total even more impressive though is that Buddy is anything but a ‘stay-at-home’ full forward, even in an era where big forwards have tended to move more up the ground. Franklin has also averaged over three inside 50s per match, which of the main big forwards of the modern era is closer to centre-half forwards like Nick Riewoldt and Jonathan Brown than full forwards and fellow Coleman Medallists like Jack Riewoldt, Josh Kennedy, and Tom Hawkins. Yet Franklin has outscored those forwards playing deeper by nearly a goal a match. An important part of Franklin’s game has been his ability to score from distance, making him an unusually high-scoring player from the half forward area. 

The closest of Franklin’s contemporaries in terms of scoring heavily across his career while playing significant portions of that career higher up the ground is probably Matthew Pavlich. Adding together scoring shots, inside 50s and rebound 50s, Franklin averaged nine of these per game and Pavlich eight per game, while other top key forwards have averaged between five and seven per game (see table above). Franklin and Pavlich did start their careers earlier than players like Jack Riewoldt, Kennedy, and Hawkins, and scoring has trended down over time. However, adjustments for scoring by era indicate that might bring those players closer to Pavlich in terms of adjusted impact, while Franklin’s career still overlaps enough with those other forwards to suggest he would remain clearly ahead.

So best goalkicker ever? – not for me. But one of the most effective, most impactful forwards ever – no doubt.

But Geelong probably still should have spoiled the party

However, as inevitable as Franklin and Sydney’s celebration on the weekend seems now, their opponent Geelong probably should have won the match. The Cats led the Swans in scoring shots, inside 50s, intercepts, and clearances, but kicked 17 behinds to Sydney’s five.

It was part of a trend on the weekend of teams with higher expected scores losing matches through inaccuracy. Given their smashing of the Bombers last week, and their generally strong figures across the board this week despite the loss, I am still fairly high on the Cats’ prospects at this point.

AFL Rankings: Round 1 2022

Welcome back to the AFL Rankings for 2022.

With the first round of a new AFL season, we get a bunch of new information about how teams will perform – and also some overreactions.

This week’s we’re going to look through the first weekend of games and take what was the ‘gut feel’ from the result, and then consider how well that stands up in light of further analysis.

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Gut feel: Melbourne are a clear step ahead of everyone else.

Further analysis: Yes, if they keep up the form they showed last September.

Melbourne are three goals ahead on top of the rankings, but that gap is largely due to the fantastic form they showed in the 2021 finals series on route to the flag. Those three finals wins account for about half of their current rankings points – without them they are ranked close to teams like the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane. Finals form is still the best form, so you would still favour Melbourne at the moment. However as Richmond found after steamrolling their way to their breakthrough 2017 premiership, there is still plenty of time in the season for others to close the gap.

Carlton v Richmond

Gut feel: Carlton are a finals contender, and Richmond are on the way down.

Further analysis: Carlton’s form is still only based on a couple of games, but Richmond’s is based on half a season.

Carlton looked impressive in their win against Richmond, in particular their midfield dominated with 18 more clearances and 24 more inside 50s. The notion that the Blues’ resurgence is real though is largely built on their equally impressive showing against Melbourne in their pre-season match. Their form to finish off 2021 was fairly dismal, with losses to Gold Coast and North Melbourne, and a 95-point thumping from Port Adelaide. The main reasons for optimism is that they may have finally got a strong, settled midfield and all of their big recruits fit and firing. Their match against the Bulldogs this week will be a big test of their new found capability.

Richmond’s drop in form is based on a larger body of evidence. They won only two out of their final ten matches in 2021, and would be near the bottom on ranking points since the halfway mark of last season. They have been trailing badly in clearance and contested possession differentials, and unlike their golden run can no longer can get the intercepts to make up for it. They also arguably no longer have any elite players outside of Dustin Martin, with their older players (e.g. Trent Cotchin) past their best and their younger players (e.g. Jack Graham) perhaps not quite into their prime.

Brisbane v Port Adelaide

Gut feel: Brisbane are a bit better if playing at home, likewise Port Adelaide.

Further analysis: Pretty much this.

There isn’t much between these sides on the rankings, and thee wasn’t a lot between these teams on the weekend, with the Lions getting six more scoring shots but Port recording three more inside 50s. Clearances and intercepts were also almost equal. Brisbane were slightly more effective when they had the ball – which might or might not be one of the great mysteries of ‘home ground advantage’ – but you could easily see this result going the other way if played at Adelaide Oval (or perhaps with less Port injuries).

West Coast v Gold Coast

Gut feel: Both sides put up a good contest – even with West Coast’s long list of injuries – and will be competitive.

Further analysis: They may well have mainly looked competitive because they played each other.

West Coast and Gold Coast are the bottom two teams on the rankings, with both recording large losses in the latter stages of 2021. Even before their big set of injuries to start this season the Eagles were dropping down, losing by over 40 points to Collingwood, at home to North Melbourne, and getting thrashed by Sydney and the Bulldogs. They might well have won the game on the weekend against the Suns with a full team, but their form was of a lower-ranked team even before that.

The Suns continued their recent trend of starting the season well, and sit in fourth on the ladder. A good sign was their +34 contested possession differential, with Matt Rowell and Touk Miller getting 40 contested possessions between them. But they were playing a weakened opponent, and there is still a larger amount of evidence that they are a lower-ranked side as well. If they are competitive against Melbourne this week, perhaps we can start to reconsider.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 10 2022

 

Season over

The 2022 AFLW home and away season ended this week, but for most of the ‘expansion’ AFLW teams – Geelong, Gold Coast, Richmond, St. Kilda and West Coast – their chance of making the finals effectively ended several weeks ago. They were all still clearly a significant way off the more established teams aside from GWS, and most of their wins came against each other. Geelong was probably the most competitive of the bunch this season, with relatively small deficits in their scoring shot and inside 50 differentials, though they took a step back in the final couple of rounds.

However, they will all have the chance to be the experienced ‘establishment’ to the next and final wave of AFLW teams joining next season. It will be interesting to see if they form a clear tier above them or not.  

GWS (as mentioned above) were only slightly better, getting routinely well beaten by the top teams and mostly only beating the ‘expansion’ sides. The Western Bulldogs and Carlton were more competitive, although they didn’t trouble much the top six. Carlton got a tough fixture, playing all of the top six sides and not beating any of them, although they did run Melbourne to the barest of margins in the final rounds. The Bulldogs had a famous win against Adelaide, but otherwise largely filled their position as a ‘middle-ranked’ side.

Player of the season

Fremantle’s Kiara Bowers and Collingwood’s Brianna Davey were the joint winners of the AFLW best and fairest last season, and given how teams dipped in form after they were injured this season, there is little doubt of their value.

This year three players stand out for me: Adelaide duo Anne Hatchard and Ebony Marnioff, and North Melbourne’s Ash Riddell. These three led the league for disposals, and they were all in the top dozen for marks, metres gained, inside 50s, and contested possessions. They were also clearly the top three for Fantasy points (which I have a bit more stock in than for the men’s league).

It is hard to choose between Marinoff and Hatchard as to who was the Crows’ best player, which is part of why I lean towards Ash Riddell as the player of the 2022 season. In a midfield that hardly lacks for talent she emerged as the clear #1 option, and capped off her home and away season by collecting an AFLW record 42 disposals in last weekend’s game against the Eagles. With the Roos achieving seven wins from their ten matches and a top four finish, I think she is a strong pick for this year’s B&F award.

Predicting the 2022 AFLW Finals

Finally, we come to the six finalists for this season: Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane, North Melbourne, Fremantle, and Collingwood. That these six teams have made it to the 2022 AFLW Finals was fairly likely – after all they made it last year – but now things will get a bit less predictable as we see over the next few weeks which of these teams comes out on top.

My view is that it is largely a three team ‘race’, which is supported by the current premiership betting odds, between Adelaide, Melbourne, and Brisbane. In addition to being two of the best teams Adelaide and Melbourne will have a ‘bye’ through the first week of the finals and home ground advantage in the second week. Brisbane meanwhile – aside from being the reigning premiers – have on form been the strongest of the first week finalists.

Assuming Brisbane can get through the first week of the finals, a Melbourne-Brisbane preliminary final is shaping as a ‘pivotal’ clash. The home teams will go in as heavy favourites in all other matches leading up to the Grand Final. Melbourne is likely to have a tough time dealing with the Lions however, even at home. The Lions romped through their final four matches with an average winning margin of 53 points, and they have ended the home and away season leading the league in points, scoring shots, and inside 50s differentials. Meanwhile over the past month, the Demons, aside from their amazing 88-point win against Fremantle, have won by only 1, 3, and 10 points – albeit one of those wins came against the Lions.

So while Melbourne currently rate very highly on the rankings, and they could still well end up winning the premiership, I would be hesitant to put money on them at their current $2.50 odds. Adelaide at the same odds, and with home ground advantage all the way through, are to me a stronger prospect. Brisbane at slightly longer odds, would have been my favourite for the flag with a top two finish, but they will now have to take a tougher road to get there.

Hopefully in a somewhat uneven season – in more ways than one – we’re now set for some strong, close finishes.

AFLW Rankings: Round 9 2022

I said last week that Melbourne was behind Fremantle and the other top sides – what do I know?

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 8 2022

Are Adelaide and Melbourne the top two?

In the next round of AFLW (assuming no COVID-related postponements) the six finalists from 2021 – and the likely six finalists for 2022 – will play off against each other. This follows this week’s matchups where four of those teams faced off, with Adelaide recording an impressive away win against Fremantle, and Melbourne controlling their match against the Kangaroos.

Those wins now put the Crows and Demons one win clear at the top of the ladder. Does that make them currently the two strongest sides? For the two-time champion Crows, I’d be prepared to say they likely are, while noting that the top five AFLW teams are only a win apart. For Melbourne, despite their important wins over the past couple of weeks, I am less sure… 

After eight rounds of the 2022 season, Adelaide has the highest points differential and ranks at or near the top in differentials for scoring shots, inside 50s, contested possessions, and possession chains (see table above). Their main rival in these categories though is not Melbourne, but their conquerors from last year’s Grand Final – the Brisbane Lions. The Lions were certainly helped in their ranking by kicking an AFLW record score (98 points to 24) against the Eagles on the weekend. That aside however they have regularly bested their opponents in most categories, and it has been Brisbane’s inaccuracy in front of goal which has led to some narrower wins, and their loss to Melbourne last week.

Melbourne meanwhile have been helped by their strong efficiency in converting inside 50 entries into points, with 1.5 points per inside 50 compared to 1.1 for the Crows and the Lions. They were well beaten for inside 50s by Adelaide, and also by Brisbane last week although they still managed to stage a memorable comeback and win. Maybe that high forward line efficiency holds up, but it may also be less sustainable to winning than the weight of inside 50 dominance that Adelaide and Brisbane have shown, or as I said last week they cannot rely on Tayla Harris taking seven contested marks each week. Still if they can finish in the top two on the actual ladder they will be in a good spot.

The main challenger to Adelaide and Brisbane may actually be Fremantle, or at least a Fremantle team at full strength. With reigning AFLW best and fairest Kiara Bowers missing for three straight matches the Dockers have dropped games against the Kangaroos and now Adelaide. Before that though they were similar to Adelaide in terms of their differentials in these main categories.

The Kangaroos? – Probably closer to the Demons and Dockers than the Crows and Lions, although they do have a much stronger inside 50 differential than Melbourne offset by the poorest scoring shot efficiency inside 50 of the top six. If they end up finishing in fifth – and they do face Brisbane away next week – they may face a tough road through the finals.

Collingwood? – Great effort to again make the finals, but little chance.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 7 2022

While the round officially ended with the Suns-Bulldogs match on Tuesday, I’m stretching it to include the Saints-Giants game, after which all teams have played the same amount of matches again. My poor spreadsheet has copped enough twisting and turning this season with all of the postponed matches, and the AFLW app itself is taking a somewhat loose approach as to which match belongs to which round.

Tayla! – she had Brisbane on its knees

One of the best matches of the season was Brisbane versus Melbourne, where the Demons came from over 20 points behind to win by three points.

Forward Tayla Harris took an AFLW record seven contested marks and kicked two goals to help lead the comeback. That now gives her almost double the number of contested marks (18) of the rest of the competition, and she is second for goals.

Specialist key forwards have arguably not been that ‘key’ in AFLW. Sarah Perkins and Sabrina Frederick were All-Australians during the competition’s first couple of years, but have struggled to find a prominent role since. Goalkickers that can also pound their way through the midfield or play higher up the ground like Erin Phillips, Katie Brennan, and Kate Hore have been more effective as the competition has progressed. Still Tayla Harris and Fremantle’s Gemma Houghton have managed to find a decent amount of success as specialist forward targets.

Harris’ performance on Monday encapsulates the value of a key forward fairly well. Melbourne can certainly not rely on her pulling down seven contested marks each week. But if she can do something close to that again in a big match, it could be the crucial difference.  

(Having said all that, with 13 more inside 50s Brisbane probably still should have won it…)

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 6 2022

Brisbane’s (relative) inaccuracy almost costs them again

A major upset was avoided on the weekend when the reigning AFLW premiers the Brisbane Lions just snuck home against St. Kilda by five points. The Lions dominated time in their forward half, with 42 inside 50s to 22 by the Saints, and 16 scoring shots to six. It was the second time this year that Brisbane almost cost itself a win through inaccuracy when kicking for goal, after squeaking home by two points against the Cats despite massive forward half dominance.

As a whole Brisbane has been relatively inaccurate in front of goal this season, ranking second last for points per scoring shot (see chart below). That said, as a whole the AFLW competition has been pretty inaccurate in front of goal this season. Only three teams (Richmond, Gold Coast and GWS) have 3.5 points or more per scoring shot this season – i.e. kicked at least as many goals as behinds.

With a bit more accuracy in front of goal the rankings would have Brisbane around the same mark as the Kangaroos, Adelaide, and Melbourne – which given their scoring shot, inside 50 and possession differentials so far in 2022 – is possibly a more accurate indication of where they are currently at.

The Dogs’ accuracy breaks the top six stranglehold

On the other hand, a major upset was caused on the weekend when the Western Bulldogs defeated reigning grand finalists and 2022 ladder leaders the Adelaide Crows by a point. In this case it was the Dogs’ accuracy that helped get them home – they had 10 less inside 50s and four less scoring shots, but kicked eight goals from those nine shots.

It was the first time that one of the six 2021 finalists (also the top six teams on the rankings) had been beaten by a team outside of that group since the 2020 finals. Even then it took some remarkable accuracy in front of goal to break that stranglehold.

Still the Dogs seemed to have stepped forward as the most likely team – other than perhaps the Suns – to challenge that group, with a one goal loss to the Dockers a couple of weeks back, and a match against GWS where inaccuracy arguably cost them the win. Of the top six only Collingwood really looks vulnerable, but there might at least be a bit of a fight for that last finals spot.