AFL Rankings: Round 6 2022

AFL Rankings: Round 5 2022

How far ahead are Melbourne?

Reigning premiers Melbourne are the only undefeated team five weeks into the season, and they haven’t looked close to losing a match so far. Compared to their apparent closest competitor the Brisbane Lions, the Demons are considered three goals better on my rankings, and according to betting markets have double the probability of winning the flag.

Melbourne has compiled easily the most ranking points over the first five rounds of this season (see table below). This includes comfortable wins over the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, GWS, and Essendon, who all finished in the top eight last year. The main note of caution here is that none of those teams currently sit inside the top eight this year, with three of them placed in the bottom five with two wins between them. Melbourne have been so dominant however that even if you shaved a couple of goals off their results they would still be considered the highest-performed team in 2022 so far.

As has been the case through Melbourne’s recent rise to becoming the preeminent team in the league, the Demons’ performances have been fuelled by a star-studded midfield being backed by a suffocating defence. The Demons have allowed only 60 points per game so far in 2022 from an average of 50 opposition inside 50s, so their opponents are scoring only 1.2 points per forward 50 entry – well below the league average of 1.6 points. Melbourne also ranks first in intercept differential (see table below), and second in contested possession differential, which are both good signs in being able to sustain another run at the flag.

A final note of caution though is that probably the last team to be this far ahead of the opposition was another team coming off a drought-breaking premiership: Richmond in the early rounds of 2018. The Tigers slowed down in the second half of that season, and did not end up winning the premiership – although they obviously more than made up for it with back-to-back flags in 2019 and 2020. Still, it is a reminder both that there is a long way to go in the season before the finals, and that the best team does not always win when you get there.

AFL Rankings: Round 4 2022

Port Adelaide are in trouble but it is not quite as dire as it looks

Port Adelaide, having made the preliminary final the past two seasons, have zero wins and four losses, including a brutal loss after the siren to their arch-rival the Adelaide Crows (see video below, source: AFL on YouTube). This makes them the only winless team after four rounds, with some pressure mounting on long-time coach Ken Hinkley’s position.

Port have had an average point differential of -28 over the first four rounds, being comfortably beaten at home by Hawthorn and Melbourne. However, their average scoring shot differential is just -1, and they actually have positive inside 50, possession, and ‘possession chain’ differentials.

Port’s problems have in significant part come from not being able to efficiently convert forward 50 entries into points, both in terms of getting scoring shots once inside 50 and inaccuracy in their shots on goal. Their 3 points per scoring shot is the worst in the competition, well below the league average of 3.7 points.

They have also played Brisbane and Melbourne, two of the strongest teams in the league. Certainly they still would have expected to be 2-2 at this stage, and are paying the price for ‘poor’ losses to Hawthorn and Adelaide. However, in both matches their ‘expected score’ was much better than the final result. This suggests that their fall this season so far hasn’t been quite as drastic as the wins and losses columns currently indicate.

AFL Rankings: Round 3 2022

 

AFL Rankings: Round 2 2022

Another Buddy take

There was plenty written and spoken about the career of Sydney forward Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin over the past week as he approached – and reached – the milestone of 1000 goals. Some pondered if he was the greatest goal-kicker to ever play the game. While for me that is still John Coleman, I thought I would show something beyond just the raw goal figures to show how incredible Franklin’s scoring prowess has been relative to his contemporaries.

Most people are aware of Franklin’s high number of goals compared to other key forwards of the past 20 years. What makes that total even more impressive though is that Buddy is anything but a ‘stay-at-home’ full forward, even in an era where big forwards have tended to move more up the ground. Franklin has also averaged over three inside 50s per match, which of the main big forwards of the modern era is closer to centre-half forwards like Nick Riewoldt and Jonathan Brown than full forwards and fellow Coleman Medallists like Jack Riewoldt, Josh Kennedy, and Tom Hawkins. Yet Franklin has outscored those forwards playing deeper by nearly a goal a match. An important part of Franklin’s game has been his ability to score from distance, making him an unusually high-scoring player from the half forward area. 

The closest of Franklin’s contemporaries in terms of scoring heavily across his career while playing significant portions of that career higher up the ground is probably Matthew Pavlich. Adding together scoring shots, inside 50s and rebound 50s, Franklin averaged nine of these per game and Pavlich eight per game, while other top key forwards have averaged between five and seven per game (see table above). Franklin and Pavlich did start their careers earlier than players like Jack Riewoldt, Kennedy, and Hawkins, and scoring has trended down over time. However, adjustments for scoring by era indicate that might bring those players closer to Pavlich in terms of adjusted impact, while Franklin’s career still overlaps enough with those other forwards to suggest he would remain clearly ahead.

So best goalkicker ever? – not for me. But one of the most effective, most impactful forwards ever – no doubt.

But Geelong probably still should have spoiled the party

However, as inevitable as Franklin and Sydney’s celebration on the weekend seems now, their opponent Geelong probably should have won the match. The Cats led the Swans in scoring shots, inside 50s, intercepts, and clearances, but kicked 17 behinds to Sydney’s five.

It was part of a trend on the weekend of teams with higher expected scores losing matches through inaccuracy. Given their smashing of the Bombers last week, and their generally strong figures across the board this week despite the loss, I am still fairly high on the Cats’ prospects at this point.

AFL Rankings: Round 1 2022

Welcome back to the AFL Rankings for 2022.

With the first round of a new AFL season, we get a bunch of new information about how teams will perform – and also some overreactions.

This week’s we’re going to look through the first weekend of games and take what was the ‘gut feel’ from the result, and then consider how well that stands up in light of further analysis.

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Gut feel: Melbourne are a clear step ahead of everyone else.

Further analysis: Yes, if they keep up the form they showed last September.

Melbourne are three goals ahead on top of the rankings, but that gap is largely due to the fantastic form they showed in the 2021 finals series on route to the flag. Those three finals wins account for about half of their current rankings points – without them they are ranked close to teams like the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane. Finals form is still the best form, so you would still favour Melbourne at the moment. However as Richmond found after steamrolling their way to their breakthrough 2017 premiership, there is still plenty of time in the season for others to close the gap.

Carlton v Richmond

Gut feel: Carlton are a finals contender, and Richmond are on the way down.

Further analysis: Carlton’s form is still only based on a couple of games, but Richmond’s is based on half a season.

Carlton looked impressive in their win against Richmond, in particular their midfield dominated with 18 more clearances and 24 more inside 50s. The notion that the Blues’ resurgence is real though is largely built on their equally impressive showing against Melbourne in their pre-season match. Their form to finish off 2021 was fairly dismal, with losses to Gold Coast and North Melbourne, and a 95-point thumping from Port Adelaide. The main reasons for optimism is that they may have finally got a strong, settled midfield and all of their big recruits fit and firing. Their match against the Bulldogs this week will be a big test of their new found capability.

Richmond’s drop in form is based on a larger body of evidence. They won only two out of their final ten matches in 2021, and would be near the bottom on ranking points since the halfway mark of last season. They have been trailing badly in clearance and contested possession differentials, and unlike their golden run can no longer can get the intercepts to make up for it. They also arguably no longer have any elite players outside of Dustin Martin, with their older players (e.g. Trent Cotchin) past their best and their younger players (e.g. Jack Graham) perhaps not quite into their prime.

Brisbane v Port Adelaide

Gut feel: Brisbane are a bit better if playing at home, likewise Port Adelaide.

Further analysis: Pretty much this.

There isn’t much between these sides on the rankings, and thee wasn’t a lot between these teams on the weekend, with the Lions getting six more scoring shots but Port recording three more inside 50s. Clearances and intercepts were also almost equal. Brisbane were slightly more effective when they had the ball – which might or might not be one of the great mysteries of ‘home ground advantage’ – but you could easily see this result going the other way if played at Adelaide Oval (or perhaps with less Port injuries).

West Coast v Gold Coast

Gut feel: Both sides put up a good contest – even with West Coast’s long list of injuries – and will be competitive.

Further analysis: They may well have mainly looked competitive because they played each other.

West Coast and Gold Coast are the bottom two teams on the rankings, with both recording large losses in the latter stages of 2021. Even before their big set of injuries to start this season the Eagles were dropping down, losing by over 40 points to Collingwood, at home to North Melbourne, and getting thrashed by Sydney and the Bulldogs. They might well have won the game on the weekend against the Suns with a full team, but their form was of a lower-ranked team even before that.

The Suns continued their recent trend of starting the season well, and sit in fourth on the ladder. A good sign was their +34 contested possession differential, with Matt Rowell and Touk Miller getting 40 contested possessions between them. But they were playing a weakened opponent, and there is still a larger amount of evidence that they are a lower-ranked side as well. If they are competitive against Melbourne this week, perhaps we can start to reconsider.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 10 2022

 

Season over

The 2022 AFLW home and away season ended this week, but for most of the ‘expansion’ AFLW teams – Geelong, Gold Coast, Richmond, St. Kilda and West Coast – their chance of making the finals effectively ended several weeks ago. They were all still clearly a significant way off the more established teams aside from GWS, and most of their wins came against each other. Geelong was probably the most competitive of the bunch this season, with relatively small deficits in their scoring shot and inside 50 differentials, though they took a step back in the final couple of rounds.

However, they will all have the chance to be the experienced ‘establishment’ to the next and final wave of AFLW teams joining next season. It will be interesting to see if they form a clear tier above them or not.  

GWS (as mentioned above) were only slightly better, getting routinely well beaten by the top teams and mostly only beating the ‘expansion’ sides. The Western Bulldogs and Carlton were more competitive, although they didn’t trouble much the top six. Carlton got a tough fixture, playing all of the top six sides and not beating any of them, although they did run Melbourne to the barest of margins in the final rounds. The Bulldogs had a famous win against Adelaide, but otherwise largely filled their position as a ‘middle-ranked’ side.

Player of the season

Fremantle’s Kiara Bowers and Collingwood’s Brianna Davey were the joint winners of the AFLW best and fairest last season, and given how teams dipped in form after they were injured this season, there is little doubt of their value.

This year three players stand out for me: Adelaide duo Anne Hatchard and Ebony Marnioff, and North Melbourne’s Ash Riddell. These three led the league for disposals, and they were all in the top dozen for marks, metres gained, inside 50s, and contested possessions. They were also clearly the top three for Fantasy points (which I have a bit more stock in than for the men’s league).

It is hard to choose between Marinoff and Hatchard as to who was the Crows’ best player, which is part of why I lean towards Ash Riddell as the player of the 2022 season. In a midfield that hardly lacks for talent she emerged as the clear #1 option, and capped off her home and away season by collecting an AFLW record 42 disposals in last weekend’s game against the Eagles. With the Roos achieving seven wins from their ten matches and a top four finish, I think she is a strong pick for this year’s B&F award.

Predicting the 2022 AFLW Finals

Finally, we come to the six finalists for this season: Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane, North Melbourne, Fremantle, and Collingwood. That these six teams have made it to the 2022 AFLW Finals was fairly likely – after all they made it last year – but now things will get a bit less predictable as we see over the next few weeks which of these teams comes out on top.

My view is that it is largely a three team ‘race’, which is supported by the current premiership betting odds, between Adelaide, Melbourne, and Brisbane. In addition to being two of the best teams Adelaide and Melbourne will have a ‘bye’ through the first week of the finals and home ground advantage in the second week. Brisbane meanwhile – aside from being the reigning premiers – have on form been the strongest of the first week finalists.

Assuming Brisbane can get through the first week of the finals, a Melbourne-Brisbane preliminary final is shaping as a ‘pivotal’ clash. The home teams will go in as heavy favourites in all other matches leading up to the Grand Final. Melbourne is likely to have a tough time dealing with the Lions however, even at home. The Lions romped through their final four matches with an average winning margin of 53 points, and they have ended the home and away season leading the league in points, scoring shots, and inside 50s differentials. Meanwhile over the past month, the Demons, aside from their amazing 88-point win against Fremantle, have won by only 1, 3, and 10 points – albeit one of those wins came against the Lions.

So while Melbourne currently rate very highly on the rankings, and they could still well end up winning the premiership, I would be hesitant to put money on them at their current $2.50 odds. Adelaide at the same odds, and with home ground advantage all the way through, are to me a stronger prospect. Brisbane at slightly longer odds, would have been my favourite for the flag with a top two finish, but they will now have to take a tougher road to get there.

Hopefully in a somewhat uneven season – in more ways than one – we’re now set for some strong, close finishes.

AFLW Rankings: Round 9 2022

I said last week that Melbourne was behind Fremantle and the other top sides – what do I know?