AFL Rankings: Round 10 2024

AFL Rankings: Round 9 2024

Essendon are ‘defying’ the rankings so far this season, currently sitting third on the AFL ladder – albeit a draw away from seventh – while still being only ranked fourteenth. Why the large discrepancy?

First, Essendon have a very low percentage for a third-placed team. Three of their wins were by a goal or less, and their two losses were by almost 100 points combined.

Second, Essendon had a terrible end to 2023. They lost three matches by 70 points or more, and they beat West Coast and North Melbourne by a combined 10 points. Their average net margin adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength was -45 points over their last seven games (see chart below). That is still one-third of the games included in the Bombers’ current ranking.

Not having much of an effect is the fixture. Essendon do have a couple of easy games coming up, but so far in 2024 they have played a mix of strong, average, and weaker teams.

Are the rankings placing too much weight on the Bombers’ poor end to 2023? Possibly. In 2024, they have a slight position average adjusted net margin, which would place them around the middle of the pack for teams – about where they would sit if the Magpies had scored one more point on Anzac Day. They were around average for a fair chunk of 2023, before falling away at the end. That seems about where they are at, and around where the rankings – with some valuable wins already in the bank – have them eventually finishing this year.

 

AFL Rankings: Round 8 2024

Richmond are last for free kick differential (free kicks for less free kicks against) so far in 2024. They were second-last (per game) in 2023. They were last in 2021 and 2022, second last in 2020, and last in 2017 and 2018. How does it keep happening?

One theory was the game style that the Tigers played under coach Damien Hardwick, or at least the style they played during their golden era from 2017. However, Hardwick left as coach part way through last year. His new team the Gold Coast Suns are third for free kick differential. And under new coach Adem Yze Richmond are not a high-pressure team, ranking last for tackles and low for pressure acts. Perhaps it’s more to do with the players?

Richmond are losing the free kick count in most areas of the ground (see table below), although the two areas where they are most significantly doing so are for Midfielders and Key Defenders. For Midfielders, it’s their wings Kamdyn McIntosh and Marlion Pickett that have the largest negative differentials. For Key Defenders, it’s Dylan Grimes – who has had an even free kick differential for most of his career – and inexperienced talls Ben Miller and Tylar Young. Ruck Toby Nankervis also continues to be a main ‘offender’. But Nank aside (and Grimes, but he’s only a recent ‘offender’), that’s hardly the ‘spine’ of the modern Richmond era. Shai Bolton used to have a heavy negative differential too that contributed to past results, but has improved over the past two years.

So the negative Richmond free kick differential has persisted through changes in coach and players. Maybe the Tigers just keep finding ‘undisciplined’ players? Maybe it’s a game style that has persisted after Hardwick? Or – as much as this blog tries to find evidence that isn’t ‘conspiratorial’ … maybe this trend has reached a point to conclude that Richmond could be umpired a bit differently?

All that said, the free kick differential probably isn’t hurting Richmond a huge amount (other than supporters’ mental health), just as it did not stop them from winning premierships in 2017, 2019 and 2020. A contested possession is estimated by Champion Data to be worth about a point, so on that basis the Tigers’ free kick differential is costing them perhaps about a goal per game in points differential, although possibly a bit more if their defenders are more often getting pinned. That might cost them a win or two in a year where they are lacking them – although the ‘silver lining’ is it might also give them a higher draft pick…

 

AFL Rankings: Round 7 2024

Hawthorn on the weekend had five more clearances and 18 more contested possessions than their opponents, the Sydney Swans. They had only four more turnovers, and only three less inside 50s. Yet they lost by 76 points.

For the Hawks, it’s been a similar story throughout the season. They have averaged five more contested possessions per game, had about the same amount of possession chains (intercepts + clearances – turnovers) excluding kick-ins, and had similar inside 50s to their opponents so far this season. But they have only one win so far, against bottom team North Melbourne, and have on average scored five goals less than their opposition.

Part of it is their inaccuracy in front of goal, and part of it is their inefficiency in converting forward entries into scores. Hawthorn ranks second-last for points per scoring shot, and last for scoring shots per inside 50 in 2024. They are a lower-ranked, lower-expectation version of the problems that have plagued Brisbane this season.

This could be in part personnel. Of the forwards, Dylan Moore is well-known to be rated highly. But on the AFL Player Ratings the next best forward is Jack Ginnivan at #17, also indicating this is the area of the ground the Hawks are falling short in. On the positive side, if Hawthorn can get this part of their team right, the ‘rebuild’ may look and do somewhat better than many are currently giving credit for.

AFL Rankings: Round 6 2024

With the early byes over, we now have a better picture of where teams sit, at least in as much as all teams have played the same number of games and have the same number of games left.

Let’s look then at each team’s expected wins for 2024, and how that has changed over the first quarter of the season (see table below).

Improvers

Geelong are one of the notable big improvers, going from 13 to 17 expected wins, and from eighth on expected wins to first. The Cats still only sit fifth on the rankings, but they are on top of the current ladder with valuable wins in the bank.

Essendon had a poor end to season 2023, but they have performed much better at the start of 2024, moving from six to 10 expected wins. They are also pretty much killing the rankings’ predictions in the Squiggle leaderboard.

West Coast have dramatically improved over the past two weeks, with large wins over Fremantle and Richmond. They have improved from two to six expected wins, possibly ending their hopes of a priority draft pick but giving much-needed hope to supporters.

Decline

Adelaide, after being almost every ranking system’s ‘team that was unluckiest to miss the finals’ in 2023, have had a horror start to 2024, winning just one match and losing three matches at home. They have dropped from 14 to 10 expected wins, and – showing how even the middle teams are – from fourth on expected wins to 14^th.

Brisbane have also lost three games at home to start the season, albeit against three of the expected top six. They have dropped from 15 to 12 expected wins, going from second on expected wins to eighth.

Hawthorn, Richmond, and North Melbourne have won just two matches between them so far, and each have two less expected wins than they did at the start of the season.

AFL Rankings: Round 5 2024

After five rounds there are two undefeated teams – one which is not surprising in the GWS Giants, and one which is more surprising in Geelong. Are the Cats really a contender, or have they just had an easy fixture so far, or both?

Geelong have had a relatively friendly draw so far, playing no team higher than eleventh on the ladder or tenth on the rankings. Three of those victories were nonetheless quite impressive in terms of ‘raw’ points: a 75-point win against North Melbourne, a 36-point win against Hawthorn, and a 19-point away win against Adelaide.

Part of Geelong’s success though has been better-than-expected accuracy – the Bulldogs had a 12-point higher expected score when they lost to the Cats, Adelaide had a 5-point higher expected score, and Hawthorn were only 5 points less. On expected score, Geelong would have ‘only’ three wins and a percentage of 118, placing them more in the bottom part of the eight.

Those wins are ‘gold’ however for the Cats’ finals chances. In an even competition and with a relatively friendly draw still to come, Geelong is currently expected to finish in the top two. Obviously an unexpected loss or two would change that quite quickly. But for now the Cats do have some ‘wriggle room’ to make a return to the finals this year

AFL Rankings: Round 4 2024

AFL Rankings: Round 3 2024

Many people – including myself – expected the Adelaide Crows to move up the ladder in 2024, after narrowly missing out on the finals in 2023. The Crows finished tenth but had the fourth best percentage, with some dominant wins along with some close losses to top sides such as Collingwood (twice), Melbourne, and Sydney.

However Adelaide have had a disappointing start to the 2024 season, losing their first three matches to Gold Coast, Geelong, and Fremantle. Heavy rain at Carrara aside, the Crows have struggled to score – they have averaged the least scoring shots of any team so far, scoring on only 30 per cent of their inside 50s (league average 43 per cent).

Adelaide’s reduced offensive power has been in part due to a reduced ability to connect. The Crows have averaged only six marks inside 50 per game, and only five contested marks – again, affected by rain at Carrara, but still on average well below their opponents. They have averaged almost five more turnovers per game than any other team, with only bottom sides the Eagles and Kangaroos having higher turnover differentials. Adelaide’s kicking efficiency is the third-lowest in the league (64.6 per cent), which is even more hurtful given they have the fourth-highest kick-to-handball ratio. Captain Jordan Dawson – usually regarded as an excellent kick – has had a kicking efficiency of only 49 per cent so far this year, way down on his mark from last year of 65 per cent.

All that said, in terms of winning the ball and gaining territory the Crows have still been fairly sound. If they can clean up their disposal, they can still be an above average side, but they face a long road back to making the finals – particularly if they lose to Melbourne on Thursday night.