AFL Power Rankings: Round 6 2019

After being the big improver in 2018, Melbourne’s form has dropped the most of any AFL team this season. Last year’s highest-scoring team is now having trouble putting points on the board.

Melbourne is the team that has fallen the most

In 2018, Melbourne was the most improved team according to these rankings, zooming all the way to the top of the rankings, and more importantly making a preliminary final. The Demons gained about four goals worth of ranking points last season. In just six rounds this season they have lost almost all of those gains.

So far in 2019, Melbourne’s average net margin adjusted for estimated opponent strength and home ground advantage is -23 points (see chart above). That is not just regressing to 2017 levels for the Demons; that is around their 2015 levels of performance, when they won just seven games.

Where has it gone wrong?

Champion Data ranked Melbourne’s playing list as the best going into this season. Over the first six rounds of 2019, Melbourne ranks second-last for points scored, and have allowed the most points. In 2018 the Demons were the highest scorers per game, and were about middle of the pack for points allowed. However, they still rank eighth in inside 50 differential – even after Richmond thrashed them in that aspect in their ANZAC match – indicating that their problems may lie more on their forward and back lines than the midfield.

Up forward

Last year Tom McDonald turned from one of the best big defenders in the competition to one of the best big forwards. McDonald averaged almost three goals, three marks inside 50, and two contested marks per game. This year he is averaging around one or less per game in all of those categories. In Round 6 McDonald was moved back to defence. With Jesse Hogan having departed for Fremantle, the Demons have effectively lost their two main big forwards from last season.

Sam Weideman averages only a goal per game. Smaller forwards Alex Neal-Bullen and Charlie Spargo have kicked just two goals between them from seven combined matches. Only Jake Melksham seems to have carried over his 2018 form on the forward line, with nine goals and 11 goal assists this season, easily leading the Demons in both categories.

Down back

Down back the Demons have lost two big defenders to injury, with 2018 recruit Jake Lever still sidelined from last season’s knee injury, and 2019 recruit Steven May having played only one game. The high rating of Melbourne’s defence coming into this season then is probably more about what they could be rather than what they have been.

Some of those on the field though have dropped their output too. 2017 All-Australian Michael Hibberd is averaging only 15 disposals and three rebound 50s per game, way down on the 28 disposals and seven rebound 50s per game he averaged in 2017 (not that his 2018 matched that output either). Oscar McDonald is averaging only seven disposals per game (down from 12 last year). Like Melksham in the forward line, Christian Salem and first-year player Marty Hore have been the main sparks of hope in defence, averaging about 45 disposals and a dozen rebound 50s per game between them.

Putting Tom McDonald down back against Richmond seemed to help him regain some form and stop the Tigers’ weight of inside 50 entries from being even more damaging. McDonald recorded a massive 19 one percenters and ten rebound 50s. It seems he would be shifted back once Lever and May return though, and while it does last it comes at the expense of making the forward line even barer for options.   

The midfield too

Some of the blame for Melbourne’s drop should go to the midfield as well, even though they are still performing at a relatively high level. Melbourne ranks first for clangers and turnovers in 2019 – they ranked third for clangers per game in 2018, but they also had many more disposals. Clayton Oliver, one of the league’s best midfielders last year, has averaged a horrid six clangers per match, up from four per game in 2018. Several of Melbourne’s midfielders, and forward-midfielders, are each averaging an extra turnover per game.

Melbourne is still doing reasonably well in the clearances, but they might be able to do with the boost Jack Viney gave them when he played ‘inside’ last year. Viney averaged over seven clearances per game in his ten matches for 2018, and has averaged half that number in 2019. Oliver, Angus Brayshaw, and James Harmes have been generally fine at winning the ball, and Max Gawn is still possibly the best ruckman for hit outs in the game. The midfield is not the biggest of Melbourne’s concerns, but it is no longer strong enough to cover over the cracks elsewhere.

But really … where has it all gone wrong?

I don’t know. Melbourne was my pre-season premiership pick. I was in broad agreement when Champion Data rated their list as the best in the league. It may still be. I don’t know why so many of their players have dropped in form though.

I’ve seen some people draw comparisons to Richmond’s 2016 season, when the Tigers fell badly from their finals appearance the previous year before recovering the next year to win the premiership. Melbourne is playing just about as ‘badly’ as Richmond did in 2016. Maybe it’ll improve when Lever and May return. Or maybe it’ll take just as drastic a re-invention as the Tigers underwent to take the Demons back towards the top again.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 5 2019

Collingwood and Essendon may be set up for their most intriguing ANZAC Day match this decade.

The ANZAC Day match between Collingwood and Essendon is always a ‘blockbuster’ in terms of occasion. This year though it could be called one based on the teams’ form as well. Collingwood and Essendon are both currently quite good. It is the first time this decade that both teams have over 15 ranking points heading into the ANZAC Day match (see chart below).

Since the rankings began in 2011, the only time they have both come close to this mark is in 2013. That year Collingwood finished sixth after the home and away season, and Essendon would have finished seventh if they had not been disqualified from the finals due to their supplements program. The ANZAC Day match itself though was a fizzer, with the Bombers winning easily.

There is one other year where one could argue the teams were about as strong as 2013. Probably the best ANZAC Day match this decade was Collingwood’s one-point win in Essendon’s ill-fated 2012 season. The Magpies were coming off a Grand Final appearance in 2011. The Bombers were not highly rated by the rankings going into that match due to some thrashings in the back end of 2011. However they had still made the finals that year, and had started off well in 2012.

In all other years this decade heading into the ANZAC Day match, at least one of Collingwood or Essendon (usually the Bombers) have been ranked below average. After five rounds of the 2019 season though, Collingwood and Essendon both sit at three wins and two losses. This comes after both teams had pretty good finishes to 2018 (see charts below).

Looking over their past 22 matches, the Magpies have actually had a somewhat unusual pattern of performances, in that they seem to have a really strong performance every few weeks to stoke the premiership ‘hype’. Their six very good wins in that time have been against Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond twice, and then Brisbane this week. Aside from those games, the Magpies have been merely slightly above average, although they have also had no real poor performances in that period outside of those against their nemesis West Coast.

The Bombers have not been quite as good over that time, and have also had some poor patches which contributed to them missing the finals in 2018 despite their strong finish. Their nadir last year was arguably their Round 8 loss to bottom-placed Carlton, in a match where they had seven more scoring shots, although they got thumped by Richmond in the Dreamtime match a few weeks later. Essendon’s ‘bad’ early season form and subsequent turnaround gave them the look of inconsistency, but as the season went on the turnaround became more sustained. Then this year they started off badly with losses to GWS and St. Kilda, but have since strung together three decent wins.

Essendon could be seen as sort of your typical ‘above-average’ side, in that they are average to good in most aspects, without being particularly great in any of them. Even their three best midfielders – Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell, and Dylan Shiel – kind of fit the ‘above average but not elite’ mould, having earned one All-Australian selection each. Still, while that may seem like modest praise, it’s probably better than most of what Bomber fans have experienced over the past five years.

The Magpies meanwhile have possibly the most-heralded midfield in the competition, although only Scott Pendlebury is a multiple All-Australian. They were strong last year in disposals, hit outs, clearances, inside 50s, and tackles – though so far they are not ranked highly in those last three categories this season.

Actually, while this shapes as the strongest ANZAC Day matchup in years, both Collingwood and Essendon may not be that much better than they were in 2013, when they finished in the bottom half of the eight. That they are nevertheless currently both ‘top five’ sides on these rankings may indicate how even the competition is this year.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 4 2019

Greater Western Sydney may have had their best side a few years ago, but they are still looking good enough to be in premiership contention.

2016: peak-GWS

The 2016 AFL season saw the emergence of the Greater Western Sydney Giants (I’m not capitalising Giants) as a top eight side, and was probably their best team and season to date.

The Giants won 16 out of 22 home and away matches, with a percentage of 143.1, and crushed first-placed Sydney in the first week of the finals. They finished with about five goals worth of ranking points, which historically is really good. The Giants were strong all over the ground. They were the second-highest scoring team, and had the fourth-least points against per game. They also averaged the most inside 50s and clearances per game.

The Giants have probably never again been as deep as they were that year either (see table below). GWS came into the league on a wave of generous draft concessions and recruitment rules to better enable them to compete. That 2016 side had their initial young, big name recruits Callan Ward, Phil Davis, and Tom Scully, then entering the prime of their careers. They had high draft picks Stephen Coniglio, Dylan Shiel, Toby Greene, Nick Haynes, Adam Tomlinson, and Jonathon Patton. They had young All-Australian Jeremy Cameron. They had emerging players Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield. And they had ‘top-up’ veterans Heath Shaw, Ryan Griffen, Shane Mumford, and Steve Johnson.

It was possibly ‘peak-GWS’. It ended however with them losing their preliminary final to a red-hot Western Bulldogs, with Bulldog Clay Smith playing the game of his life.

The Giants were expected to be as strong, or even stronger, in years to come. Player unavailability and departures though weakened their side somewhat over the next couple of years, although with fewer dominant sides around they still managed to finish fourth and sixth. In 2017 they lost Coniglio, Griffen, Johnson, Greene, and Whitfield for significant time due to injuries or suspension. In 2018 they lost Greene again for significant time, as well as Kelly, Patton, Mumford, and Zac Williams (see table above). They also lost Devon Smith and Nathan Wilson to other teams.

This season, it looked like they could be further weakened by player departures. Dylan Shiel, Tom Scully, and Rory Lobb all left, with the Giants reportedly facing a ‘salary cap squeeze’. Maybe the AFL’s seemingly predestined dynasty had missed its window.

2019: the Giants are looking close to their best again

It’s still early in 2019, but the Giants have so far again been performing closer to their ‘peak’ 2016 levels.

Over their first four matches of the season, their average net margin adjusted for estimated opponent strength and home ground advantage is +35 points (see chart below). The Giants have thrashed finals aspirants Essendon and Richmond, and impressively, beat top-ranked Geelong at the Cats’ home ground on the weekend (though they did get well beat by West Coast). They are again among the league’s leaders for points scored and points allowed.

Looking further back, since their horror stretch towards the middle of last season, the Giants have been one of the league’s strongest teams, and now sit second on the rankings.

Despite those player departures, the Giants still have a pretty good list. Shiel and Scully are gone, but their places in the midfield have been filled by some of the high draft picks GWS got after their initial 2011 draft harvest (see table in previous section). This includes Josh Kelly, Tim Taranto, and Jacob Hopper, as well as the team’s leading possession getter Lachie Whitfield, who has covered so much ground that he leads the team in inside 50s and is second in rebound 50s.

As in 2018 Toby Greene and Jonathon Patton have been mostly unavailable so far, but the Giants have covered their scoring through increased production from Cameron and moving Jeremy Finlayson to the forward line. Mumford is back in the ruck. On the negative side, the Giants have now lost captain Callan Ward to a serious knee injury.

Can they keep this up? I still think the Giants are not quite as deep as that 2016 side. Whitfield, Cameron, and Hopper are playing well beyond the levels they have performed at in their careers to date, and they may need to keep doing so for the Giants to stay in their current form. They do still have Greene and Patton to return though.

In any case, the Giants seem to have kept their ‘premiership window’ open based on their season to date. Another decent finals run may be ahead of them, and finally, a chance to win their first premiership.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 3 2019

It is three weeks into the season, and people are starting to form their views about which teams are good this year, and which teams are not. (Actually, they were doing this before the season started, but now we have a few games of evidence at least.) What do the rankings say?

The ‘good’

In terms of ranking points accumulated so far this year, the leading teams are Geelong, GWS, Brisbane, West Coast and Collingwood (see table below).

Geelong is undefeated, and if their performances so far were weighted for a full 22 game season they would have a historically great 50 ranking points. The Cats are unlikely to keep up that pace, but it’s a great start.

Brisbane is also undefeated, and the big improvers so far. Most impressively the Lions thrashed reigning premiers West Coast in the opening round.

West Coast and GWS have one loss each. As mentioned above the Eagles lost to Brisbane but have beaten fellow good teams GWS and Collingwood. GWS in turn lost to the Eagles, but easily beat Richmond and Essendon.

Collingwood has only beaten Richmond so far, but their two losses came against Geelong and West Coast. Note that beating Richmond is still considered a very good win in the rankings, even though the Tigers have started the season relatively badly. If Richmond continues to perform at this lower level, then those wins against them by GWS and Collingwood will be considered less impressive.

The ‘not so good’

The worst performed teams so far in 2019 in terms of ranking points are Melbourne and North Melbourne. Both teams are yet to win a game, and both lost by a big margin in one of their games this season.

Richmond and Sydney have also not performed that well, with their only wins to date being against bottom-ranked Carlton.

Somewhat peculiarly, Carlton is considered to have played a bit better than the teams that beat them. This is mainly due to its good performance against Port Adelaide. The Blues have still not performed well overall and are yet to win a match.

St. Kilda has two wins, but one of those was a one-point win at home against lowly-ranked Gold Coast. They are the quintessential ‘team who hasn’t played any really good teams yet’.

Essendon got destroyed by GWS, and beaten by St. Kilda (but did beat Melbourne).

Despite their relatively bad performances in 2019 so far, Richmond and Melbourne are still fairly highly ranked. A team’s last three matches count for 25 per cent of its ranking. The Tigers and Demons are still carrying over a sizable chunk of ranking points from their good performance in 2018 (see table below).

This fits with the view held by some that last year’s performances still hold a decent weight. Of the teams that have not been playing well in 2019, probably the most people would consider Richmond and Melbourne as the two teams that stand the best chance of ‘turning it around’ (the Tigers’ injuries notwithstanding).

For now though, the clear top four sides seem to be Geelong, West Coast, GWS, and Collingwood. Time will tell if the Brisbane Lions can continue to improve their standing, and join them.

AFL WOMEN’S Power Rankings: Finals 2019

To the surprise of few, the Adelaide Crows end the 2019 AFLW season as the top-ranked team, and more importantly winners of the 2019 premiership. If you adjust for the closer margins in AFLW then there has never been an AFL team that has been so dominant. I’ve already outlined how well they were performing this season, and how many statistical categories they were leading in, a few weeks ago – from that point they just got even better.

The only other point I’ll note is that, while Carlton were generally not among the four strongest teams during the year, and only qualified for the finals due to the much-criticised conference system, they actually did end the year as a worthy equal to the ‘other’ non-Adelaide Conference A teams. Their comfortable Preliminary Final win against Fremantle was an impressive performance. Across the year I would say that the Dockers were more deserving of a Grand Final spot instead, but the Blues definitely out-performed them on the day.

To get away from the figures for a moment I’ve found that the AFLW is getting better to watch with each new season. Finding a worthy rival to Adelaide may make it even more interesting, but the Crows were so good that they were a joy to watch regardless, and things can change quickly with a new season and player movements. I’ll be more invested from a supporter viewpoint next year with the entry of Richmond into the competition. Even aside from that, I’m excited to see the first generation of players who have grown up in an AFLW world come through, and to see what ways of playing Australian football develop as a result.