AFL Rankings: Round 19 2023

 

It’s the sound of the mightier Giants

The GWS Giants had a relatively poor season in 2022, which resulted in them parting ways with long-time coach Leon Cameron. On the ladder, they were the lowest team other than North Melbourne and West Coast.

As I write this however the Giants are actually sitting in the top eight, with ten wins from eighteen matches, including six wins in a row. Their recent form is even better than their ladder position and ranking suggest. Until their recent winning streak, three of their four wins had been by less than eight points, and they were the only team this season to lose to West Coast. In contrast their past six wins – albeit mostly against lower-ranked sides – have come at an average winning margin of 28 points.

The Giants gained a reputation under Leon Cameron, at least in his earlier years for being a team that relied on winning stoppages. From 2016 to their Grand Final appearance in 2019 they ranked in the top three each year for clearance differential. After that, they dropped away a bit and in 2022 only finished thirteenth. Some teams can counter losses at the stoppages by winning intercepts, but the Giants have been even weaker in intercept differential, finishing in the bottom three in each of the past two seasons.

However, along has come new coach Adam Kingsley, who has experience in winning the post-clearance contests from his time as an assistant coach at Richmond. Kingsley currently has the Giants ranked eighth for intercept differential, including over +10 in two of their past three matches. Leading the way is Sam Taylor, with over ten per game and more than one per game better than anyone else in the league, while returning defender Jack Buckley also ranks in the league’s top 20.

The Giants still rank low for clearance differential, but essentially aren’t much different from last year in this area. This is despite the departures of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, who are off winning stoppages for the previously mentioned Tigers. Filling the gap have been Tom Green and Josh Kelly, alongside ruck Kieran Briggs, who have formed a tighter inside midfield combination than the ‘midfield-by-committee’ run – whether by choice or personnel (or both) – by Cameron.

GWS now comes into a tougher stretch of games to finish the season off, starting with arch-rival the Western Bulldogs this week, and finishing with fellow finals aspirants Essendon and Carlton. Whether they eventually make the final eight, after a slow start to the season, may be touch‑and‑go. Either way though, the Giants’ prospects look brighter heading towards the end of the season than they did heading into it.

AFL Rankings: Round 18 2023

Nick Daicos and the Magpies are now as good as the ‘hype’

Last season, Collingwood won eleven games in a row and were two points away from a Grand Final berth. Many analysts argued though (and I would be one of them) that the Magpies won more games than you would expect given their general performances, given they won nine matches by single-figure margins, including seven wins in a row by less than two goals. This year however, Collingwood currently sit on top of the ladder with 15 wins and a sizable percentage gap, and most fans and analysts would consider them one of the best teams, if not the best team.

This change in rating is reflected in that of the Magpies’ young star Nick Daicos. Daicos at just 19 years of age received a lot of media notice in his first season in 2022. While he was impressive for a first-season player however, he was probably not among the league’s ‘elite’ players.

This year though, he looks to be very deserving of his favouritism in the Brownlow Medal. Daicos has jumped from 26 to 33 disposals a game (see table below), and now ranks first in the league this season. They’re not ‘empty’ touches either. Daicos ranks eleventh in the league for average metres gained, and eleventh for average score involvements, while averaging over nine contested possessions per game. He did not even rank in the top 150 for contested possessions and score involvements last season. He also ranks in the top twenty for average disposals per turnover, again after not even being in the top 150 last season.

Essentially Daicos is doing the things he did in defence last season, and still doing them while he spends more time in the midfield. He is averaging over one more inside 50 and two more score involvements per game, while averaging about the same number of rebound 50s. He has increased his contested possessions per game, while improving his metres gained and ability to retain possession. Daicos this season is an amazing blend of a player who has the ‘outside’ game of a general defender and the ‘inside’ game of an attacking midfielder. This is why he is third on the AFL Player Ratings this season, behind only the similarly amazing Marcus Bontempelli and Clayton Oliver (who has played only ten games).

Collingwood and Daicos last season were probably a case of seeming a bit better than they actually were through some famous close wins. This year I’d say they are actually performing as well as their ‘reputation’ suggests. Things are still close enough among the top teams that I still wouldn’t be claiming it's the Magpies' 'flag to lose' this season. But Nick Daicos and Collingwood look to have at least as good a chance as anyone.

AFL Rankings: Round 17 2023

A few weeks ago, Carlton were ‘slumping’ so badly that football fans and media were speculating about coach Michael Voss’ future with the club. Despite losing six games straight though, the Blues’ form was not quite as bad as it seemed. The six losses came at an average of 25 points, but included losses to top sides Brisbane, Collingwood, and Melbourne. Inaccuracy in front of goal also hurt the Blues, as they had only 16 less scoring shots than their opponents over those weeks.

Things have turned around significantly for Carlton over the past month. The Blues have won each of their past three matches by over 50 points, albeit against much easier competition than they faced during their losing streak. The rankings now have them as the eighth-ranked side (although aside from the top five and the bottom three, the other teams are so close that a couple of good wins can quickly move a side around the rankings).

Carlton has by far the highest disposal differential this season (+27), which was somewhat a source of criticism when they were hanging on to the ball and still losing. But they also rate second for contested possession differential (+8), as they did last season, indicating they can win the ‘tough ball’ as well. That includes the league’s best contested mark differential (+2.8), with big forwards Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay ranked equal first.

Other main indicators also suggest Carlton are around the mark for a finals side, ranking second in differential for intercepts, sixth for clearances, and ninth for inside 50s. The main concern for them is whether they have left their finals run too late. They currently sit one win and percentage away from eighth position with seven rounds left, and have a few tough matches to come, including Port Adelaide this week who are riding a thirteen-game winning streak. Nevertheless, the rankings have liked what they’ve seen from Carlton over the past few weeks enough that, with the home ground advantage, they are tipped to win by one point over the Power. If that happens, that would certainly give the Blues’ season – and morale – a bit of a boost.

AFL Rankings: Round 16 2023

Melbourne ‘blow it’ but still look formidable

Melbourne had a costly loss on the weekend in terms of their hopes of finishing in the top four, losing to GWS by two points. This put them two wins behind Brisbane in third place, and four wins behind Collingwood and Port Adelaide.

It was a game that Melbourne ‘shouldn’t have lost’. They had eight more scoring shots than the Giants, but were inaccurate in front of goal, scoring 5.15. They had 73 entries inside 50 to the Giants’ 46. And they had 44 more contested possessions than GWS, including 48 clearances to 28. That sort of dominance in both winning the ball and gaining territory would usually get you the win.

It somewhat captures what have been the strengths and weaknesses for Melbourne this season. They lead the league for inside 50s and contested possessions. However, they are thirteenth for scoring shots per inside 50, while Port Adelaide and Brisbane are in the top five. It’s a familiar result for Melbourne over the past few years, where their midfield and defence have been stellar, but they have struggled relative to other teams to convert their forward entries into scores.

Melbourne also lost a close game to Fremantle by seven points at the MCG a few weeks back, despite an inside 50 differential of +6 and a contested possession differential of +16. Aside from that their losses have been mostly ‘expected’, losing to Port Adelaide, Brisbane, and Geelong away, with the exception being their 27-point loss to Essendon in Adelaide.

Collingwood also lost when they played Brisbane away and they narrowly beat Adelaide (away and at home), while Port Adelaide got thumped by Collingwood on the road and have famously snuck home in a few matches during their current twelve-match winning streak. Which is not to say they aren’t very good teams as well, just that the difference between them and Melbourne may not be nearly as large as the current ladder suggests.

Those losses for Melbourne did ultimately occur however, and they’ve found themselves with some work to do to finish in the top four. Most ladder projections still have them making it, with their two hardest match-ups against Brisbane and Adelaide coming at home. If they get there they would still fancy their chances in a first-up final, particularly if it was at the MCG against Collingwood, but they could improve their chances even more by getting their forward set-up working better.