AFL Rankings: Round 16 2024

Rarely has a team performed so differently at home compared with away than the Gold Coast Suns this season. In home matches – including their two in Darwin – they are ‘the Sydney Swans’, beating opponents by an average of five goals per match (see table below). In away matches they are ‘the Kangaroos’, losing to opponents on average by about the same margin.

The differences are everywhere. Their inside 50 differential is +20 better on average at home (see table above). Their contested possessions differential is +18 better, and their clearances +12. Their uncontested possession differential improves from around -40 to around +40.

The patterns are clear in their key players as well, particularly their midfield. Noah Anderson is averaging 33 disposals and seven clearances at home this season, and 23 disposals and four clearances away. Matt Rowell averages 26 and eight at home, and 20 and five away. Touk Miller is averaging four more disposals at home. Ben King averages an extra goal at home. Sam Flanders is about the same home and away, but he has been mainly playing on the backline, watching the ball come towards him on the road as the opposition win it out of the middle.

A fair part of this difference may come from playing harder opponents away – the Suns have played the top six ranked teams away, and the bottom four ranked teams at home. Still that seems to be only ‘half’ the story – even after adjusting for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength, the Suns still come out as a five goal better team at home. Why? Who knows? Anderson and Rowell were not that different at home compared with away last season.

The Suns have only three of their remaining eight games left at home, but they do have a few easier games away in the remaining rounds. This could help them sneak into their first finals series. It is looking tight though, and without a major pick-up in their away performances any finals appearance may be short-lived.