At the conclusion of Round 17, the AFL ladder is
tight in the middle, with only two wins (and percentage) separating Carlton in
second from Hawthorn in thirteenth.
The middle of the ladder has been close all season,
and as a consequence a ‘bit of luck’ has pushed teams significantly higher or
lower than their underlying strength would suggest. The Brisbane Lions have had
one of the best inside 50 differentials this year, but had trouble converting
early in the season, and were languishing outside of the eight. Conversely, Essendon
has conceded more points than they have scored, but were still in the top four
as of last week.
Where do each of the finals contenders sit now?
The upper middle-class (top four contenders) – Despite a loss on the weekend, Carlton
should be able to secure a top four spot. The Blues are favoured in all of
their remaining matches, playing only lowly-ranked West Coast outside of
Victoria. Brisbane has it tougher, playing top-ranked team Sydney this weekend
and having to travel a couple of times. They are strong enough however that now
they have finally got themselves into the top four they should stay there.
Geelong and Fremantle are ranked a bit below those
teams, but they have both got themselves in good positions and have relatively favourable
draws. The Cats have an important match at home against the Bulldogs this week,
and the Cats and Dockers face off in a few weeks time in a match that could
determine the ‘final top four’ spot.
The bourgeois (good teams in precarious positions) – The Western Bulldogs and GWS are the
most highly rated of the other middle teams, but both are far from certainties
to make the final eight. The Dogs play Geelong and Sydney away in the next
couple of weeks, and also have a ‘deceptively tough’ away game against Adelaide
(who the rankings still consider to be above average). Given they are currently
one win out of the eight, they will likely need to snag one of those wins on
the road.
GWS have one more win than the Dogs, but also have a
tricky run home, as each week they will face off against another finals
contender. This includes an away trip to Brisbane – and most tantalisingly, a match
against the Bulldogs in Ballarat in the final round, which could determine
which of these two rivals ultimately gets a finals spot.
The lower middle-class (fighting for the last finals places) – Essendon currently have more
premiership points in the bank than the majority of finals contenders, but now
they reach a tougher part of their fixture. Matches against Adelaide, St.
Kilda, Gold Coast, and Fremantle shape as 50/50 prospects (according to the rankings),
and the Bombers have Sydney and Brisbane in their final two matches. However,
if you think the rankings currently underrate Essendon, you could be more
bullish about their chances.
The rest of the teams are fairly similar in terms of wins, ranking points, and their prospects. Hawthorn have the most favourable remaining fixture, playing the two bottom teams in their final two matches, but they are also coming from the furthest back. Gold Coast are great at home and terrible away. They have more away games left than home games, but one of those away games is against bottom side Richmond. Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Collingwood have a mix of matches, including against each other.
Whatever way it falls, it looks like an exciting end to the season. If things fall just right, the final round this season – where among other potentially crucial games, Melbourne plays Collingwood, the Bulldogs play GWS, and Gold Coast try to finally win away against their coach’s old team – could be one for the ages.
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