Sunday, July 7, 2024

AFL Rankings: Round 17 2024


North Melbourne has had a wretched past few years, and up until their bye in Round 12 this year it looked like more of the same. However, since their bye, the Kangaroos have been … average. They have won two games and lost three, but two of those losses came by less than a goal. What are the Roos doing better?

The Roos’ improvement has definitely come from an improved ability to win the ball … and maybe a bit of ‘luck’. They have gone from a contested possession differential of -15 per game up to Round 12 to +6 per game since (see table below). In three of those past five matches, they have had a significant advantage in clearances. But they have also benefited a little from accuracy in front of goal; in both of their wins they had far less inside 50 entries than their opposition, and in only one of their past five matches they have had more scoring shots.

Over recent weeks, the Roos have mainly managed to have their best group in the midfield – Luke Davies-Uniacke, high draft picks Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw, and captain Jy Simpkin (along with ruck Tristan Xerri). They have also brought Will Phillips back into the mix as a tagger. Sheezel had spent most of his career until now as a defender, but as highly rated as he was as a back, he seems to be even more valuable in the centre. He has got more than ten contested possessions in each of his past six games – his presence down back isn’t needed as much if the ball is less often down there!

Defensively the Roos have improved as well. They laid 87 tackles against the Eagles (+25 differential), and have been even or ahead in the tackle count in their other games since. They had generally been behind in this area for this season up to that point.

Are the Kangaroos finally on the way up? They probably will be among the bottom half of teams for a little while yet, but compared to being miles away from the rest of the competition the past month has potentially been a major step.

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