Wednesday, May 25, 2011

More Wins = More Brownlow Votes?

Yes they do, but the effect hasn't been uniform across clubs. In particular, the newer clubs have considerably higher correlations between average votes per match and winning percentages across home-and-away seasons (excluding those seasons in which the 3-2-1 system of voting was not in place).

Brisbane Bears/Lions: 0.97
West Coast: 0.96
Adelaide: 0.95
Port Adelaide: 0.92
Fremantle: 0.91
St. Kilda: 0.81
Hawthorn: 0.78
Richmond: 0.75
Bulldogs: 0.74
Geelong: 0.73
Carlton: 0.73
Essendon: 0.73
Sydney: 0.72
North Melbourne: 0.67
Melbourne: 0.66
Collingwood: 0.61
Fitzroy: 0.59

The likely explanation for this is that votes have become more highly correlated with wins over time.

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