AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Finals 2020

How quickly things have changed since last week. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the AFLW season quickly went from the home and away season to the finals… which ended after one week with the season cancelled and no premier at all.

It was a sad end to what was shaping as an interesting finals series. The Kangaroos finish as the top-rated team on these rankings, however they barely squeaked by Collingwood in their semi‑final, and other results suggested that other teams were closing in. Fremantle had been undefeated all season, but hadn’t really put in a dominating performance until they thrashed the Gold Coast Suns by 70 points on the weekend. (This gave a boost to the ranking points of teams that have recently played the Dockers.) Carlton also had a comfortable win, while Melbourne has been a quality side for much of the season.

Hopefully the competition will have a more satisfying resolution next year, although a lot about the AFL is currently uncertain. That’s it for now, and I’ll return with the men’s rankings when it looks like the next round of matches is about to get underway.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 6 2020

Of the four new AFLW teams in 2020, St. Kilda and the Gold Coast Suns have generally been competitive, and the West Coast Eagles and Richmond have not. Why?

On the weekend the AFLW’s four new teams played each other, and the results were not close. St. Kilda defeated Richmond by 39 points, holding the Tigers to just three points – the first goalless final score in AFLW. Meanwhile the Gold Coast Suns easily accounted for the West Coast Eagles by 25 points, with the Eagles scoring only one goal.

Both St. Kilda and Gold Coast have been reasonably competitive in their first season. The Suns remarkably are (just) still in the race for a finals spot in Conference A, with two wins and a draw and a percentage above 100. The Saints are out of the finals race in the tougher Conference B, but also have two wins and a percentage of 90 against generally strong opposition.

West Coast and Richmond on the other hand have easily been the two bottom teams this season. The Eagles have one win and the Tigers none, and both have a percentage below 40.

Why the difference?

Richmond are young and inexperienced

Richmond were one of the more favoured teams with the bookmakers going into the 2020 AFLW season, but in hindsight this may been wishful thinking. The Tigers were the youngest and most inexperienced team, with an average age of 23 years and barely over 100 games of experience. Thirteen of their players came from the 2019 draft. (Thank you to ‘AFLW Prospectus’ for age and experience figures – these would be a pain to compile myself!).

In addition, some of the players they did sign are probably not as productive as their reputations suggest. Monique Conti won the Bulldogs’ best and fairest in 2019, and has been a star again for the Tigers. Forwards Katie Brennan, Sabrina Frederick, and Christina Bernardi had question marks though. Brennan had played just 13 games in three seasons, and has missed games again this season. Frederick and Bernardi were inaccurate last season (Frederick kicked just one goal), and they have kicked 6.13 between them this season.

The AFLW has shown how young players can develop over time, with players that were teenagers when the competition began emerging as stars in their early twenties. The Tigers may have to wait a few years until those draft picks develop before emerging as a force in the women’s league.

West Coast does not have that ‘excuse’

The Eagles however were the fourth oldest team entering the season, with more experience than any other new side. Nine of their players were 28 years or older, compared to four of the Tigers.

However, of those experienced players probably only Dana Hooker and Emma Swanson have lived up to (or exceeded) expectations. Only one player – debutant Hayley Bullas – has kicked more than one goal for the season, while more experienced goalkickers such as Ashlee Atkins and Kellie Gibson have barely hit the scoreboard. On the positive side some young players have shown promise such as Bullas, first draft pick Imahra Cameron, and Mikayla Bowen.

Gold Coast are young too, but have mature stars

The Suns are relatively young as well, with the third-youngest list heading into the season. However some of their ‘older’ players have been very good this year. Lauren Ahrens, Hannah Dunn, and Kate Surman have each averaged over 12 disposals per game and are all 28 years old. Star player Jamie Stanton is younger at 24 years old, but had three prior seasons under her belt. Still there are some young stars for the future as well, such as 19 year old Jacqui Yorston who is averaging 13 disposals for the second straight season.

St. Kilda: the brightest future of all

None of the new teams though has a young core like St. Kilda, with 18 year old Georgia Patrikios and 20 year olds Olivia Vesely and Caitlin Greiser. Patrikios and Vesely have averaged over 15 disposals and six contested possessions per game. Greiser is the competition’s leading goalkicker, with ten goals including the match-winning goal against Melbourne. The Saints were the sixth-oldest team heading into the season, but many of their top players should be around for several years to come.

Perhaps this should not have been a surprise. The Southern Saints were very good in the VFLW last season. In hindsight, there was more evidence that they were better equipped for the AFLW than the Tigers were. They won’t make the finals, but the Saints should be pretty pleased with how their first season in the AFLW has panned out.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 5 2020

This week: why the Kangaroos are the highest rated team on the rankings, and why the undefeated Dockers are not.

If Carlton’s win against the reigning premiers the Adelaide Crows last week was impressive, then the Kangaroos’ win this week was even better: a 42 point win which may have somewhat atoned for the big loss the Crows handed out to them last year. Four players – Emma Kearney, Jenna Bruton, Jasmine Garner, and Ash Riddell – had 24 disposals or more, as the Roos dominated Adelaide in almost every aspect.

The Kangaroos have now replaced the Blues on top of the rankings. Since their two point loss in the first round to Melbourne, they have won their past four games by an average of over five goals. They have scored the most points for the season, and only Melbourne has conceded less points. The bookmakers have the Roos as favourites for the premiership, along with the other conference leader Fremantle.

That seems fair enough, as the Dockers have yet to lose a game this season. But hang on – the rankings currently have Fremantle down in sixth, near Collingwood and Brisbane who have each won only three out of five games. Why are the rankings treating the Dockers with so little ‘respect’?

The Kangaroos’ four wins have all been by more than two goals (see table below). In contrast, three of Fremantle’s wins have been by eight points or less, and it could easily have lost one or two of those matches. The Dockers’ only win by more than three goals was against new team West Coast. The closeness of their matches is not due to a particularly tough fixture either – their opponents so far are rated, on average, as easier than the Roos.

Of course, if Fremantle remains undefeated it will have home ground advantage for the finals. This will be challenging though – the Dockers have fellow premiership aspirants Carlton and Melbourne in their final two home-and-away games. The Kangaroos have Brisbane away in the final round, but on current form they would be favoured in that match-up. The risk for the Roos is that if they lose that match they may well finish below the Lions in Conference A. For the Dockers at least, their two nearest Conference B rivals – Carlton and Melbourne – still have to play each other.

All that said, you would still be feeling reasonably good about the Dockers’ premiership chances if you were a supporter. But it’s the Roos that look to me like the team that you would least want to play at season’s end.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 4 2020

The Adelaide Crows’ loss to Carlton highlights that they are no longer the clear team to beat.

About a year ago the Adelaide Crows capped a dominating season by beating Carlton in the Grand Final at the Adelaide Oval by 45 points. This meant that they had won their final eight matches by an average of almost seven goals. In the same match however two-time league most valuable player Erin Phillips injured her ACL.

As a result Phillips missed the first three matches of the 2020 season, and combined with the absence of co-captain Chelsea Randall, it seemed to significantly affect the Crows’ results. They lost their first match to Brisbane, and took three quarters to shake off new team St. Kilda, putting them amongst the pack as the season neared its halfway mark.

Happily, Erin Phillips returned for this round’s match against Carlton. Unhappily for the Crows, she was only one of three Crows (along with fellow All-Australians Anne Hatchard and Ebony Marinoff) to record double figures in disposals as the Blues recorded an eight-point win. Meanwhile a whopping 16 Carlton players got ten or more disposals, as the Blues dominated possession over the Crows, picking up 92 more disposals overall.

Carlton built a ‘wall’ in its defensive midfield and backline, and worked its way up the field with 49 more marks and 71 more uncontested possessions than the Crows. Kerryn Harrington led the Blues on their intercepting ways with 13 marks. Up forward, Tayla Harris was the star with seven marks and five scoring shots. If it wasn’t for the importance of last year’s Preliminary Final, this would have been the Blues’ finest ever AFLW win.

As a result Adelaide has lost the massive lead it held at the start of the season at the top of the rankings, overtaken by Carlton with next week’s opponent the Kangaroos close behind. This year, based on their net margins adjusted for opponent strength and home ground advantage, the Crows have been merely average (see table below). Carlton meanwhile has the best adjusted net margin of any side.

At the start of the season the Crows were huge favourites to win every match they played in. Next week the rankings put them as slight underdogs against the Kangaroos (see below). With two wins out of four matches the Crows have their work cut out for them to earn a home final this season.