AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 1 2020

In the first week of the 2020 AFLW season: the ‘old’ teams establish a gap between them and the ‘new’ sides, the gap to the Crows closes, and some contenders come away with important wins.

Welcome to the AFLW…

Four teams had the joy of playing their first-ever match in the AFLW on the weekend, but three of them at least showed they may still have a ways to go to match it with the established sides.

In the opening match of the season, Richmond conceded the first five goals against Carlton before eventually going down by 34 points. The Blues played a large part of the game in possession of the ball in their forward half, having 74 (about 50 per cent) more disposals than the Tigers, over twice as many (27 to 12) clearances, and four times as many (44 to 11) inside 50s. If not for inaccuracy in front of goal, this could have been a huge win for Carlton. Perhaps some hope for Richmond lies in the fact that the Blues themselves suffered a big loss in their opening match last season, before fighting back all the way to the Grand Final.

West Coast went down by 27 points against Collingwood, with 47 less disposals than the Magpies. Meanwhile St. Kilda lost by 25 points to the Western Bulldogs, with 36 less disposals. In those two matches, the big differences were in the number of uncontested possessions and disposal efficiency, indicating that the more established teams are currently cleaner in their ball use. The other new side Gold Coast also had this issue, but the weather perhaps kept the Giants from taking full advantage. Only four players each for Richmond, West Coast, and Gold Coast recorded double figures for disposals, and most of them were those that had played AFLW before.

For all of the handwringing about the new teams ‘poaching’ players from the league’s foundation clubs, they may be a year or two away from providing stern competition yet.

The Crows lose first up, but some good signs are still there

So much for being a near certainty to win… the Adelaide Crows lost their very first match of the season to the Brisbane Lions, and were never even close to winning. I went through last week why the Crows probably were not as strong as the rankings thought, but it was still a substantial upset. Without injured co-captains Erin Phillips and Chelsea Randall, do the Crows look to be in trouble?

Yes and no. Adelaide had 33 more disposals than the Lions – including an astonishing 35 disposals from Anne Hatchard – and 12 more inside 50s. Those types of numbers should win a team more games than they lose. But of some concern is that the Crows did not convert well from inside 50, or defend well when Brisbane got the ball forward. Without their best goalkicker (Phillips) and best intercept defender (Randall), there is some reason to think that could continue to be a problem this year. Still, they should have enough to again be contending at year’s end. (And the rankings have them as ‘near certainties’ to win again next week.)

Early wins are important come season’s end

With only eight matches in the season, every win in AFLW is like gold, and the finals picture can change substantially from week to week. Unlucky in past seasons, Melbourne scored a crucial two-point win against the Kangaroos, on the back of two goals from Kate Hore. The Demons’ likely rivals Carlton and Fremantle also won, but this year there is room for all three teams to make the finals. On the other hand, Conference B looks to be shaping up as the stronger conference, with the Magpies and Bulldogs also winning.

Brisbane is now considered the likeliest third Conference A finalist behind Adelaide and the Kangaroos, replacing Richmond. As great as their first performance was though, it is questionable whether the young Lions can keep up that level of performance, potentially making the third Conference A position the spot where another new finalist can slip through.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Preview 2020

The AFL Women’s competition is back in 2020 for its fourth season, and so are my team rankings. In this preview post: ranking the four new teams, the effects of the uneven fixture, and which teams the rankings think are most likely to make the finals.

Ranking the new teams

The 2020 AFLW season will be the first for four teams: Gold Coast, Richmond, St. Kilda, and West Coast. Their entry has led to another bout of player movement between clubs, including former Bulldogs captain Katie Brennan becoming the first captain for the Tigers, and Dana Hooker moving from Fremantle to cross-town rivals West Coast. How do we rank these new entrants, and how does this affect the rankings of the ten existing teams?

Well, over the past few years everyone has had quite a bit of experience trying to figure out how new AFLW teams may go, including the original eight teams in the league’s inaugural season. My approach has been to use the bookmakers’ odds to set the initial rankings (though I’ve varied slightly each time in the exact way I’ve used them).

This approach has a few minor issues: the bookmakers’ odds may also take into account the difficulty of each team’s fixture – more on that below – which I haven’t tried to separate out. I also ended up excluding the Adelaide Crows from my regression, as last year they were such a massive outlier (more on that below as well).

Unsurprisingly three of the new teams are at long odds for the premiership, with Gold Coast’s odds being the longest. The exception is Richmond. This could in part be due to bullish Tiger bettors still basking in the glow of last season’s men’s premiership. Richmond has stacked its team with big-name forwards, and the AFLW has so far been a competition dominated more by midfielders. However, rival AFLW players also believe the Tigers to be the most likely new side to succeed, and a 30 point win against the Eagles in a practice match doesn’t hurt this view.

I’ve put the Tigers in among the group of teams underneath Adelaide, with Carlton, Fremantle, the Kangaroos, and Melbourne (see below). The other new teams I’ve put down with Collingwood, Geelong – one of the ‘luckiest’ finals sides there ever was, helped by the AFLW’s conference system – and the Brisbane Lions.

Note: Apart from changing the rankings to incorporate the new teams, I’ve also changed the Kangaroos’ home ground ‘disadvantage’ when playing away in Melbourne, and applied this retrospectively. With the Roos seeming more now like a part-Melbourne based team, I’ve done away with the disadvantage entirely, similar to Geelong in the men’s competition (although not the Cats’ women’s team).

Which club has the easiest fixture?

Many complaints are made about the unevenness of the AFL men’s fixture, but its effect pales against that of the fixture in the women’s league. Unlike the men’s league, AFLW has more teams than rounds. The league’s administration may have, in theory, made the conferences more even this year than last year. However, the addition of four new teams, taking the total up to fourteen, means that each club will not play five other teams at all.

As things sit now, the team that looks like it will benefit the most from this inequity in the fixture is the Fremantle Dockers (see table below). Of last year’s top teams the Dockers do not play Adelaide, the Kangaroos, and of course themselves. In addition, one of their ‘away’ games is against the Eagles in Perth.

Fremantle gains an estimated goal per game from the ease of their fixture, or one more expected win. In a season of eight rounds, that could come in handy when fighting for one of the six finals spots. Another finals aspirant Melbourne also avoids playing Adelaide, while Carlton and Richmond are among the eight teams that have to face the league’s powerhouse.

At the other end, St. Kilda gets a baptism of fire, playing every highly ranked side other than the Kangaroos. The Saints also receive only one ‘home’ game against a non-Victorian club, while they have to travel interstate twice. Of course, these fixture assessments could look very different once the finals actually approach.

ACL (Adelaide Crows ligaments) injuries even up the league

The 2019 AFLW premiers the Adelaide Crows may have been the most dominant team – men’s or women’s – in the history of the AFL. After tripping up in their opening match against the Bulldogs, the Crows got better and better, winning their matches by an average of 40 points, and their final three matches by an average of nearly ten goals.

In contrast, last year’s men premiers Richmond finished with a ranking of about five goals. The virtually all-conquering 2000 Essendon team won their matches by an average of over 50 points, but the average winning margin in the men’s league is around 30 to 40 points. In the AFLW last year it was just over 20 points, and that is with Adelaide’s thrashings propping it up.

Therefore, as we stand at the start of the season the Crows are estimated have close to a 100 per cent chance of winning each home and away match, and about a 90 per cent chance of winning all eight of them. The bookmakers don’t have Adelaide as being anywhere near that strong. What the bookmakers know that the rankings do not is that the Crows have lost both of their co-captains Chelsea Randall and Erin Phillips to ACL injuries – Randall for the whole season, and Phillips potentially so. Even aside from those injuries, one may expect Adelaide to regress a little. It is still a strong team however, led by All-Australians Ebony Marinoff and Anne Hatchard.

Player movement in the AFLW has made predictions from past performances fraught so far, but the rankings like six teams in particular to make this year’s finals. Adelaide, the Kangaroos, and Richmond (the Tigers based almost entirely on bookmakers’ odds) are considered the strongest teams in Conference A, while Fremantle, Carlton, and Melbourne are the favourites to emerge from Conference B. Gold Coast and St. Kilda are considered the most likely to be at the bottom of their respective conferences, with the Saints’ tough fixture hurting them.

I’ll be back each week with more AFLW rankings goodness, hopefully with statistics from the AFL website up and running again to support my number-crunching. In the meantime, here are the rankings’ predictions for the first round of matches. (Brisbane’s estimated probability of winning against Adelaide is actually 0.2 per cent, but for the reasons above, is likely somewhat underestimated.)

AFL Power Rankings: Finals 2019

As they did with their drought-breaking premiership in 2017, Richmond came home strong with close to their best line-up to be the premier team of 2019.

As many people (cough cough) predicted, Richmond emerged from the 2019 finals with their second premiership in three years. The Tigers won their three finals by a combined margin of 155 points. This made it 12 wins in a row to finish the year with an average margin of almost 40 points per game (and an average ‘adjusted’ margin of about that much as well – see chart below).

Injuries would seem to explain Richmond’s year … wouldn’t they?

Richmond was a far, far stronger team after its bye in Round 14, before which they had been about average. Their side had been hit hard by injuries in the first half of the year. Straight after the bye though they brought in seven players that ended up being in their premiership team: Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards, Kane Lambert, David Astbury, Jayden Short, Shai Bolton, and Ivan Soldo. Later they also re-gained one of their main forwards Jack Riewoldt, and their main ruck Toby Nankervis.

It would seem then that the Tigers’ turnaround could be mainly attributed to getting more of their better players back. This was surely true to some extent: Cotchin, Lambert, and Riewoldt are clearly more productive players than Connor Menadue, Dan Butler, and Noah Balta. It is interesting to note though that Richmond saw a similar jump in form towards the latter part of their previous premiership season in 2017 (see chart below).

Injuries would seem to have been less of a factor for Richmond in 2017, as their top players generally missed no or few games. Like 2019 though, the Tigers may have progressively worked their way towards close to their best side – Richmond fans will well remember they kept the same line‑up all the way through the 2017 finals series. Jacob Townsend, Jack Graham, and Nathan Broad settled into the team late in the season, with Townsend kicking 16 goals in his five games. Also most of the players that had missed some time during the season, such as Dion Prestia, Nick Vlastuin, and Edwards, had returned by finals time.

Last year the Tigers came bang out of the gate, but had trailed off a bit by season’s end. This year Richmond seemed to just get stronger as the season went on. Even for the Grand Final this year the Tigers still seemed to be working their way towards their best line-up, with mid-season recruit Marlion Pickett famously making his debut in the final game of the year. There was one player though that had still not returned, and whose absence was thought by many to be terminal to the Tigers’ flag chances in 2019.

Covering Alex Rance

Back in Round 1 Richmond lost its best interceptor in Alex Rance to a season-ending injury. At the time, I suggested that the Tigers may be able to cover Rance’s contribution to some extent, but that he may still be missed. HPN had a similar message, noting that Richmond had become less reliant on Rance in recent years.

As it turned out, that is kind of how it worked out. Richmond averaged easily the most intercepts per match in 2018, with 82 per game. In 2019 this dropped to 75 per game. It was a bit better after the bye, increasing from 73 to 77 per game, which suggests that part of the difference came not from Rance but just from having better personnel on the ground.

I have written before how important intercept/turnover differentials are to scoring shot differentials with your opponent, as an intercept ends your opponent’s possession ‘chain’ and starts one of your own. The 2018 Richmond team took the strategy of deprioritising the clearances and more than making up for it through forcing turnovers to new levels. This year’s Richmond side was relatively bad at winning clearances as well, finishing third-last in clearance differential. Where then did the positive scoring shot differential with their opponents come from?

Richmond still had a pretty good intercept differential after the bye (see tables below), although not as good as last year. What Richmond did do better than last year was prevent their possession chains from ending up in stoppages.

On average after the bye they had seven less ‘chains’ per game stopped than their opponents, more than making up for the five less per game they started through clearances. Whether this was because their opponents had difficulty catching them, or they were still able to progress the ball when caught (or both) I don’t know, but it helped them make up for not being as heavy on intercepts in Rance’s absence.

Still, things didn’t look that good at mid-year. As a Tigers fan I’m glad they found a way to peak at the right time for the second time in three years. Now enough numbers … I’m off to go look again through the premiership memorabilia and wait for the Richmond beer to go on sale. See you next season!

AFL Power Rankings: Round 23 2019

There is no clear premiership favourite heading into the finals this year, but that will not stop the rankings making a pick anyway.

After the home and away season Geelong finish on top of the rankings, and the ladder, having spent the better part of the season on top of both. Below that though, things are quite close and muddled, as various teams have heated up and cooled off compared with their overall season form.

The Western Bulldogs are ranked second, but finished seventh on the ladder. Hawthorn and North Melbourne are ranked in the top eight, but did not make the finals. GWS and Essendon are ranked outside the top eight, but did make the finals. Last year’s Grand Final contestants Collingwood and West Coast are ranked outside the top six.

Good luck picking a premiership favourite heading into the finals this year. But we’re going to try and pick a flag winner anyway…

Predicting the finals series

Over the past four years I’ve used the rankings to predict how the finals series will play out. Basically this is done just by comparing who has the higher ranking points, adjusted for any estimated home ground advantage. This method has picked two of the four premiership winners (Hawthorn 2015 and Richmond 2017), and six of the eight Grand Finalists (missing out on the Bulldogs in 2016 and Collingwood in 2018).

This year, the rankings predict that the top two teams on the ladder – Geelong and Brisbane – will meet in the Grand Final, with Geelong prevailing (see table above). Indeed, the rankings are picking the higher-placed team on the ladder in every case, apart from the highly-ranked Bulldogs cutting a path through to a Preliminary Final.

Home ground advantage aside though, there is not a lot separating the four highest-ranked teams. Richmond is the current premiership favourite with the bookmakers, and the Tigers’ probability of winning could be better than indicated above. The rankings may still be underrating them a little due to their injuries earlier in the year, and an extra goal of ranking points would have them as favoured in any match-up outside of Brisbane at the Gabba (and the bookmakers favour them in that as well). That still would not make Richmond a strong premiership favourite however.

Outside of West Coast against Essendon, it would not be surprising to see the above scenario go completely out the window within the first week. Late season form ‘slump’ aside though, Geelong has still performed well enough throughout the year for the rankings to favour them as the premier team of 2019.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 22 2019

The AFL tries to give the weaker teams the easier fixtures, and the stronger teams more difficult match-ups. However, teams rise and fall – who got lucky and unlucky in 2019 from their fixtures being a lot different than expected? (Hint: anyone who played Brisbane twice got unlucky.)

Whenever the AFL fixture for the new season is released there are several ratings of the difficulty of each team’s fixture, including on this blog. These ratings though are primarily based on how strong each team was in the previous season. In this post I re-rate the difficulty of each team’s fixture in 2019, based on how strong each team has been in this season.  

How the fixture was meant to work in 2019

In a season where each of the 18 AFL teams plays 22 matches, each team can only play five others twice. The AFL attempts to make the fixture more equitable by applying a ‘weighted rule’ to these ‘double match-ups’. Basically the 18 teams are divided into three groups of six based on how they finished after finals in 2018. Teams will tend to have more ‘double match-ups’ against teams in their own group, and less against teams at the other end of the spectrum.

This is who each team plays twice in 2019.

Ladder position sometimes hides the ‘true’ relative strength of a side. If we re-rate teams based on my rankings at the end of 2018 though the AFL did not seem to do too badly (see table below).

Fremantle were unlucky, in that they were the only bottom six side not to get to play Carlton or Gold Coast twice. My rankings considered North Melbourne and Sydney to be unlucky as well, as two of their ‘double match-up’ opponents – Geelong and Essendon – were rated more highly than their ladder positions.

(Note that, in the table below, combined ranking points have been reversed so higher points means an easier fixture. Also, points were adjusted so that their sum is zero.)

How the fixture has ended up working in 2019

Teams improve and decline, and so the strength of the fixture at the start of the season is different to how it actually turns out.

In 2019 the teams that have improved the most – based on their improvement in ranking points – include Carlton, the Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane (see table below). Facing these sides twice is now a tougher prospect than it first appeared. Geelong has jumped a lot of spots on the ladder, but the rankings consider that the Cats’ ladder position last season understated their ‘actual’ strength.

Conversely the biggest declines in performance, according to the rankings, have been from Melbourne and Essendon (despite the Bombers moving up the ladder). Sydney has dropped several spots on the ladder, but the rankings do not consider its fall to have been as great.

If we re-rank the strength of each team’s ‘double match-ups’ we see some significant changes for some teams (see table below).

Almost every team that played Brisbane twice is now considered to have had a fixture difficulty of a ‘top six’ side. The exception is Gold Coast, and its fixture difficulty has still moved from that of a ‘bottom six’ to a ‘middle six’ side.

Top sides Richmond, Collingwood and West Coast are now considered to have had much weaker fixtures than originally intended, as they played Melbourne twice. Richmond and West Coast’s fixture difficulties are considered to be closer to ‘bottom six’ or ‘middle six’ sides.

Sydney has gone from unlucky to not as unlucky, helped by playing Melbourne and Essendon twice.

GWS did not play Melbourne twice, but every team it played twice except Gold Coast is rated at least a bit weaker than last season.

Ultimately the fixture doesn’t turn you from a ‘good’ side to a ‘bad’ side, or vice versa. Further, this season the variation in fixture difficulty across teams is less than usual – there are no very strong teams, and with Carlton’s improvement there are no very ‘weak’ teams except for Gold Coast. Still, as Richmond and West Coast are jostling for top four positions, they may be a little bit thankful that their return bouts against Melbourne were a lot easier than they looked at the start of the season.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 21 2019

AFL Power Rankings: Round 20 2019

AFL Power Rankings: Round 19 2019

The Brisbane Lions have been near the top of the ladder for most of the season, but it is their recent form that has made them a premiership contender.

From ‘cellar dweller’ to top four

If you are reading this, you probably already know that the Brisbane Lions have jumped up the ladder in 2019. In 2018 the Lions had only five wins and finished fifteenth. In 2019, as of the end of Round 19, they have twelve wins and are in third. No team has moved up nearly as much as the Lions have this season.

If you look a bit closer at the Lions’ results in 2018, they were actually better than their five wins would suggest. Their percentage was 89.1, a fair bit better than five of the teams in 2018. Their average net margin, adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength, was ‑11 (see chart above); certainly below average, but not horrible. The Lions’ poor win-loss record in 2018 in part came from them winning only one out of their six games decided by less than seven points. A team with their performances would normally be expected to win between eight and nine games.

The Brisbane Lions were therefore expected by many analysts to improve. Few expected them to improve by quite this much though. Outside of their ‘purple patch’ in Rounds 15 to 17 last year, they still were one of the weaker teams. But just a few rounds out from the end of the home-and-away season this year, the Lions are suddenly a premiership contender.

Bolstered by the fixture, boosted by a burst of form

A few weeks ago, this blog – like many others – did not yet consider Brisbane as one of the main premiership contenders, despite the Lions sitting in the top four at the time. These rankings had them as the ninth-best side, even though they had been outside the top eight after only one round all season.

Over the first half of the season, however, Brisbane had arguably only been slightly above average. From Rounds 1 to 12, their average adjusted net margin was only +3 (see chart below). The Lions’ record up to then has been somewhat bolstered by a ‘friendly’ fixture. They have yet to play Geelong or Richmond, and they didn’t play GWS until Round 16. They played West Coast and Collingwood at home – impressively beating the former, and getting well-beaten by the latter. They were well-beaten by Essendon. They lost to Carlton in Round 12. Brisbane had certainly improved, but they had been helped a bit by beating the ‘lesser’ teams.

In their past six matches though, the Lions have hit the stratosphere. Their average adjusted net margin in that time has shot up to +33 (see chart above). They easily beat St. Kilda and Melbourne in Rounds 14 and 15. They beat GWS away in Round 16. They smashed Port Adelaide away in Round 17. They had a close win against North Melbourne in Round 18, but registered 12 more scoring shots. Then on the weekend they comfortably beat Hawthorn in Tasmania.

Brisbane is now fifth on the rankings, with two goals worth of ranking points, and they are less than a goal from top spot. In a year without a strong team, the Lions are now a genuine ‘premiership contender’.

Bolstered by the midfield recruits

After the 2018 season, Brisbane lost former captain Dayne Beams to Collingwood. They did however manage to get star midfielder Lachie Neale from Fremantle. They also recruited Jarryd Lyons, who was amazingly delisted by the Gold Coast Suns despite being arguably their most productive player.

The Lions have significantly improved this year in terms of contested possessions, clearances, and inside 50s (see table below). Their midfield recruits have led to some of this improvement. Despite being far less heralded than Beams, Lyons has basically replaced his production. Meanwhile, Lachie Neale – who is fourth in the league in contested possessions per game, and second in clearances – is a massive upgrade on the Lions’ next best midfielder, Tom Cutler. Neale and Cutler play different roles, but Neale’s arrival has led to some reshuffling of roles for other players like Mitch Robinson, who offers more than Cutler did. Some of Cutler’s production on the outside has also been made up by the major improvement of Hugh McCluggage, who has been one of the best wingmen in the league this year.

Again, one might have expected some improvement in Brisbane’s midfield this year, but probably not to this extent. We will see if it can hold up through the months of August and September.